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Interesting Earnings Play on Facebook:
Terry's Tips carries out 9 actual portfolios for paying subscribers. After the first four months of 2017, all 9 portfolios are in the black. The composite average has gained 34.5% for the year, certainly an outstanding result. The FB portfolio is by far the greatest gainer. We know that we cannot expect to continue these extraordinary gains for the entire year, but we are confident that many portfolios will continue producing gains which outperform the market averages.
Implied volatility (IV) of FB options tends to escalate prior to an earnings announcement. For example, it is about 45% for the 05May17 series that expires this Friday. This compares to 24% for the 16Jun17 series that expires six weeks later. We will buy the relatively cheap 16Jun17 series and sell the more expensive 05May17 series.
Here are the spreads I made today when FB was trading just over $152:
Buy to Open 2 FB 16Jun17 150 puts (FB170616P150)
Sell to Open 2 FB 05 May17 150 puts (FB170505P150) for a debit of $1.49 (buying a calendar)
Buy to Open 1 FB 16Jun17 150 calls (FB170616C150)
Sell to Open 1 FB 05 May17 152.5 calls (FB170505C152.5) for a debit of $3.03 (buying a diagonal)
Buy to Open 1 FB 16Jun17 155 calls (FB170616C155)
Sell to Open 1 FB 05 May17 152.5 calls (FB170505C152.5) for a debit of $.55 (buying a diagonal)
Buy to Open 2 FB 16Jun17 155 calls (FB170616C155)
Sell to Open 2 FB 05 May17 155 calls (FB170505C155) for a debit of $1.59 (buying a calendar)
The second and third spreads together essentially create a calendar spread at the 152.5 strike price. This was necessary because the 16Jun17 series does not offer that strike.
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These spreads cost me a total of $941 plus $12 in commissions at tastyworks’ ultra-low rate of $1.00 per contract. Even better, when I close out these trades, probably on Friday, I will not incur a commission at all (only pay the $.10 per contract clearing fee).
Here is the risk profile graph which shows the expected gains and losses from these trades after the close on Friday, May 5, 2017. The graph assumes that IV of the June options will fall from 24% to 16%:
These spreads will do best if the stock remains flat or moves moderately higher. If it falls within the range of about $150 to about $155, I should make about 40% for the week. While we all know that anything can happen after an earnings announcement, if the last announcement is any example, it could be a good week.
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One thing I like about these kinds of spreads is that your risk is clearly limited, and you can’t lose your entire investment because the long options will always have a greater value than the options you sold to someone else.
As with all investments, especially with options, you should only use money that you can truly afford to lose.
Happy trading,
Terry
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Any questions? I would love to hear from you by email (terry@terrystips.com), or if you would like to talk to our guy Seth, give him a jingle at 800-803-4595 and either ask him your question(s) or give him your thoughts. seth@terrystips.com
You can see every trade made in the actual option portfolios conducted at Terry’s Tips and learn all about the wonderful world of options by subscribing here. Why wait any longer to make this important investment in yourself?
Even better, you can become a Terry’s Tips Insider, and receive all our educational reports and materials absolutely free by opening a new account at the best options broker around - thinkorswim. If you open an account with our link, they will give you 60 days of free trading or up to $600, the same deals they give to everyone who opens an account with them. You must use this link to sign up - open thinkorswim account – and once you have funded your account with at least $3500, email Seth@TerrysTips.com and let him know that you have done it, and this is what he will do – sign you for our Premium Service package ($119.95 value plus an extra 4 months of our Premium Service, valued at another $190.80). You get $300.65 worth of services without paying us one penny.
I look forward to having you on board, and to prospering with you.
Terry
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