Subject: A Useful Way to Think About Delta

 

Terrys Tips newsletter
     

Dear Friend,

Two weeks ago I told you about a spread I had placed on Costco (COST).  It  would make 40% after commissions if COST finished at any price above $145 in 2 weeks from tomorrow (March 18th).  Yesterday after the close, COST announced earnings. The company did not meet expectations and the stock fell 5%.  The bad news is out and it is currently trading at $149, still $4 above our bogey price.  If it closes at any price above $145 on March 18, both the puts I bought and sold will expire worthless and I will make 40% on my investment.  I won’t have to make a closing trade.  Where else but with options can you make this kind of money with so little effort?

This week we will start a discussion about the “Greeks” – the measures designed to predict how option prices will change when underlying stock prices change or time elapses. It is important to have a basic understanding of some of these measures before embarking on trading options.

I hope you enjoy this short discussion.

Terry
 
Option Tip of the Week

A Useful Way to Think About Delta: 

The first “Greek” that most people learn about when they get involved in options is Delta.  This important measure tells us how much the price of the option will change if the underlying stock or ETF changes by $1.00.  

If you own a call option that carries a delta of 60, that means that if the stock goes up by $1.00, your option will increase in value by $.60 (if the stock falls by $1.00, your option will fall by a little less than $.60).

The useful way to think about delta is to consider it the probability of that option finishing up (on expiration day) in the money.  If you own a call option at a strike price of 55 and the underlying stock is selling at $55, you have an at-the-money option, and the delta will likely be about 50.  In other words, the market is saying that your option has a 50-50 chance of expiring in the money (i.e., the stock is above $55 so your option would have some intrinsic value).

If your option were at the 50 strike, it would have a much higher delta value because the likelihood of its finishing up in the money (i.e., higher than $50) would be much higher.  The stock could fall by $4.90 or go up by any amount and it would end up being in the money, so the delta value would be quite high, maybe 70 or 75.  The market would be saying that there is a 70% or 75% chance of the stock ending up above $50 at expiration.

On the other hand, if your call option were at the 65 strike while the stock was selling at $55, it would carry a much lower delta because there would be a much lower likelihood of the stock going up $5 so that your option would expire in the money.

If you buy a call which is considerably in the money (the strike price is much lower than the stock price), it will carry an extremely high delta.  In fact, it might be as high as 90, or even more if it is also close to expiration.  When you own one of these deep in-the-money calls, it is pretty much the same as owning the stock itself, except your investment is far less.  Your return on investment is far greater if you are selling short-term calls against your position (compared to writing calls on stock).

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Terry

 


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Overbought/Oversold report
March 3, 2016
• S&P 500 (SPY) – 79.2 (Neutral)
• Dow Jones (DIA) – 75.5 (Neutral)
• Russell 2000 (IWM) – 96.6 (Overbought)
• NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) – 58.4 (Neutral)     
 
Testimonial of the Week

This kind of trading is actually an "art"... I have my own field of expertise...but sadly I can only offer my great appreciation to what you do so instinctively." - Jay

     

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Sincerely,
Dr. Terry Allen
Terry's Tips

 
 
Week 382
March 3, 2016
 
In This Issue
Option Trading Idea of the Week
Overbought/Sold Condition Report
Testimonial of the Week
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