Subject: Lesson 5 - A Word About Risk (Lesson Title Corrected)

From The Desk of 
The Trader
“Take the risk. Take the chance. Put your heart and soul into it, because when you put your soul into it, you will become what you've always dreamed. You yourself will become a legend.”

-- Jamie Brewer

FAF19 Day 6
8 February 2019 
Daily Goal: 40 Ticks
Max Contract Size (Per Trade): 2 (Margins $700; acct balance over $1400)
Performance: +51 Ticks on 6 Contracts
Summary: Today we found our low at the bottom of the low poer zone, then proceeded to lift for the remainder of the day.
Recap Video: Click the image.

Today’s Trading Lesson: 
A Word About Risk
The one market variable simple trading pupils (and all other traders for that matter) can control is the risk taken on any given trade. Again… it’s the one thing a trader can control. 

As such, risk is the cornerstone of trading (and capitalism as a matter of fact). Understanding risk in general and the risks of your business in particular is a primary determinant of day trading success versus failure. The difference between a profit generating enterprise and a failed endeavor.

A formal definition of risk is exposure to the chance of injury or loss; hazard or dangerous chance; or the amount to be lost in the event of injury or loss. 

I shorten that to the chance of loss and/or the amount thereof.
Layman’s version? The probability that you will lose money and/or the money exposed to the probability of losing it.

Ranging from the so called zero risk associated with not trading at all (that’s a misnomer that we’ll discuss some other time) to the maximum amount of risk available based on account size, traders have a wide range of potential market exposure from which to choose. Understanding this and how to vary that exposure depending on the historical probability and size of loss versus the historical probability and size of gain in a given trade setup is a powerful trading edge that all consistently profitable traders understand. 

In the case of shares or futures trading, risk is the expected loss in the event one’s stop is elected. The actual loss sustained is the difference between the entry price and the exit price following stop election multiplied by the number of shares or contracts of the position.

For example… If you buy Stock A at $10 with the understanding that you will sell it and take the loss if it trades at $8, your risk on the trade is $2 per share or contract purchased. The $8 level is known as your stop level.

For a more concrete example, recall the chart below from a previous lesson.  Here, 25,304 is your entry, 25,258 is your stop resulting in risk of 46 ticks in the Dow Mini (YM).
Interestingly, the uninitiated often think of risk as the total dollar amount of the position at initiation (in the case of Stock A above, $10*the number of shares purchased or 25,304 in the case of the YM). 

While this is true in the abstract sense, as a practical matter this is only true if one allows a position to go to zero rather than recognizing a loss at some earlier point (like the $8/25,258 levels suggested in the examples). If one allows this to happen, the words of Gordon Gekko seem particularly appropriate… “A fool and his money are lucky enough to get together in the first place.”

But what is this probability based exposure? The concept is really quite simple. Traders should put on the largest positions when the probability of substantial loss is lowest

That is, the larger your stop loss (the distance your stop is from entry), the smaller your allowed position size. Most people (especially new traders) focus on trading the most when they think the possibility of success is highest

This ignores the importance and realities of risk and presents the exact antithesis of what’s needed as traders should always make it their business to have the smallest positions when the size of the potential loss is largest.

To remedy this, amateur or unprofitable traders (no, they’re not always 1 and the same) spend their time searching for trades with a near 100% probability of winning… commonly known as the Holy Grail. 

Unfortunately, the only 100% probability setup is to avoid trading at all. The downside of that approach is it also happens to deliver an equivalent return. It risks the least (0), but also rewards the least (0).

Successful trading is about finding the sweet spot where you risk the least for the largest reward. In other words your search must be for asymmetric outcomes (a little risked on a relative basis with a possibility of an outsized return)… in your favor. 

Understanding risk and its place in your trading is a central key to your trading success. 

I cannot overstate this. 

I hate the use (overuse) of exclamation points in writing, so consider this my version of yelling, stomping and jumping up and down… UNDERSTANDING RISK AND USING IT APPROPRIATELY WILL DETERMINE YOUR SUCCESS…PERIOD. 

UNDERSTANDING RISK AND USING IT APPROPRIATELY WILL DETERMINE YOUR SUCCESS…PERIOD. 

Understanding how to minimize and manage my risk was the proverbial corner I had to round in my own trading journey. Long ago I learned that lesson and to structure my trading to expose the least amount of capital to loss at all times. Then, within the context of this minimizing, to use my risk exposure to reflect my personal sense of the relative probabilities of different trading opportunities and outcomes.

It's worked well.

This is the backbone of how I trade as well as how I guide traders to interact with the market. If you make it a core part of your trading, it will improve your profitability… enormously.

Hopefully, this adds to your understanding of what risk is and how it works.  

KIS,
Ev

The Art of Simple Trading, PO Box 240356, Charlotte, NC 28224, United States
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