Subject: Do you know when a winning trade isn't a win Friend?

From The Desk of 
The Trader
Date: 6 February 2018

Greetings From The Land Of Crazy Market Moves:

Have you been watching the market (or the news) for the last few days?

The swings have been insane.  The ES has had an average range above 100 POINTS over the last 2 trading days instead of it's normal 30 to 40 point range.

Here's a look at the primary intraday chart we watch in the trading room... The range has been big.
It's rattled some cages.

Here are some paraphrased examples of calls/texts that I've gotten...
  • "Holy %&^$ what's going on?"
  • "Is the bull market done?"
  • "Is it over yet"
  • "Should I sell?"
  • "Should I buy?"
And the best of them led to this little conversation with TT... 

TT -- "I got into TQQQ at $144... Should I sell or move my stop up and trail it as price moves higher?"

Me -- "I'm not in front of my screens.  Where is TQQQ right now?"

TT -- "$154."

Me -- "Take the money.  We'll talk about why later... and don't forget to cancel everything else out once you get your fill."

TT -- "Done... Thanks homey."

Here's a look at the daily TQQQ chart with TT's trade marked.
So why did I tell TT to sell immediately?

TT trades a daily (not an intraday) setup... there's no way it could have fired today... Once I realized that she was long and in the money, but didn't have a firm exit strategy in place, I knew her best approach was to sell.

And why is that?

Pretty simple actually... Trading is about having and following a well tested strategic process.

If you deviate from your process, there are only 2 possible outcomes...
  1. The trade works and you store that luck away in your mind as skill... which will ultimately cost you money...
  2. The trade fails and you store that pain away as the failure of trading generally... which will ultimately cost you money...
Neither of these alternatives will help your efforts to trade in a consistently profitable manner and, in fact, will set your progress back a great deal.

Don't do that to yourself.

Meanwhile, back on the ranch... Here's a look at the swing chart that finally fired a successful long this morning.  From the confirmed signal around 2560 it generated more than 100 ES points.
There's no way to know for sure if this bounce will continue, but it's certainly worth watching.

By the way... GPK should give interested stalkers a buy signal in the next day or so if that bounce does indeed hold.  If it does fire, use a stop down around $14.
Hope it helps...

KIS,

The Trader
PO Box 240356, Charlotte, NC 28224, United States
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