The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® rose again in July to 117.0 (1985=100), up from June’s 110.1 reading. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions improved to 88.3 (1985=100) from 80.0 in June. A reading of 80 tends to signal a recession within a year, but Expectations climbed well over 80. “Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less optimistic in July with 21.9% of respondents indicating that business conditions were “good”, down from 23.4% in June. The Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved to 160.0 (1985=100) from 155.3 the previous month as 46.9% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful”, up from 45.4%. Consumers were more optimistic about short-term business conditions, with 17.1% expecting them to improve, up from 15.4%.

The US Energy Information Administration reported that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.6M barrels to 456.8M barrels (now 2% above the five-year average) for the week ending July 21st. Gasoline inventories decreased by 0.8M barrels (7% below the five-year average), and distillate inventories decreased by 0.2M barrels (14% below the five-year average). Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.5M barrels. Crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5M barrels per day, a slight decrease of 107K barrels per day as compared to the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 93.4% of their operable capacity, as gasoline production decreased to an average of 9.5M barrels per day and distillate fuel production decreased to an average of 4.8M barrels per day. Crude oil imports came in at 6.4M barrels per day, a decrease of 807K barrels per day as compared to the previous week. Crude oil imports averaged about 6.6M barrels per day over the last four weeks, 1% more than the same period last year. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 754K barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 160K barrels per day.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced the raising of its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, putting it in the range of between 5.25% and 5.50% - marking a 22-year high. Fed policymakers voted unanimously to raise their benchmark interest rate. The move marked the eleventh increase since March 2022 and follows 25-basis point increases in February, March, and May. The FOMC statement stated "The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time." The FOMC statement continued with "The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals".