The U.S. Census Bureau reported new orders for manufactured goods fell $2.8 billion, or 0.5%, to $584.2B in September. This follows a downwardly revised decline of 0.8% the previous month. Non-durable goods orders decreased by 0.2%, while durable goods orders fell by 0.7%. Core capital goods orders, a closely watched proxy for business spending that excludes volatile aircraft and defense orders, increased 0.7% instead of the previously reported 0.5%. Shipments fell $2.2B, or 0.4%, to $586.9B marking two consecutive months of decline. This comes after a 0.7% drop in August. Core durable goods shipments fell 0.1% instead of the previously reported 0.3%. After two consecutive months of growth, inventories fell $1.9B, or 0.2%, to $858.1B. This follows an increase of 0.1% in August. The inventories-to-shipments ratio at 1.46 was unchanged from the previous month.
The Commerce Department reported a trade deficit of $84.4 billion in September. This represents the highest trade imbalance since April 2022 and an increase of $13.6B from the upwardly revised $70.8B in August. This increase was attributed to a $3.2B drop in exports, which was due to declines in pharmaceuticals (-$2.0B) and civilian aircraft (-$1.7B), and a $10.3B increase in imports, which was mostly caused by increases in pharmaceuticals (+$1.9B), computers (+$1.0B), and automobiles & accessories (+$1.2B). The goods deficit increased $14.2B to $109.0B, while the services surplus rose $0.6B to $24.6B. Compared to the same period in 2023, the goods and services deficit has increased by $69.6B, or 11.8%, so far this year. Exports have increased by $84.7B, or 3.7%, and imports have increased by $154.4B, or 5.3%. The goods trade deficit with China increased $3.9B to a seasonally adjusted $26.9B as exports decreased $0.8B to $11.7B and imports increased $1.4B to $38.6B.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it will lower the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%. The FOMC, in its statement, indicated that “Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.” Fed Chair Powell was pressed at the FOMC press conference as to when consumers will start experiencing the benefits of the Fed’s monetary policy. Powell answered, "It takes some years of real wage gains for people to feel better, and that is what we are trying to create, and I think we are well on the road to creating that. Inflation has come way down, and the economy is still strong here. Wages are moving up but at a sustainable level… but it will be sometime before people regain their confidence".
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