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In its January 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, the Center for Microeconomic Data at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.0% over the long term, while remaining steady at 3.0% over the short and medium term. According to the survey, expectations for commodity prices have increased in a number of sectors, including rent (+0.5%), medical care (+1.0%), food (+0.6%), gas (+0.6%), and education (+0.2%). Expectations for the labor market were mixed, with lower expectations for unemployment (-0.6%) and higher expectations for job loss (+2.3%) and job finding (+1.3%). Expectations for household spending growth dropped sharply (-0.4%) to 4.4%, the lowest level in four years. The results indicate that consumers are cautious about the state of the economy going forward, even though there is some optimism about job stability.
The Labor Department reported that the consumer price index increased (+0.5%) in January after rising (+0.4%) in December and (+0.3%) in November. The all items index has increased (+3.0%) over the last 12 months, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than what was reported in December. The shelter index (+0.4%) accounted for nearly 30% of the monthly increase in the all items index. The energy index rose (+1.1%) as the gasoline index increased (+1.8%). The food index also increased, rising (+0.4%). Over the past year, the energy index increased (+1.0%), while food prices rose (+2.5%). Core CPI inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased (+0.4%) in January after (+0.2%) in December. The annual rate of core CPI inflation increased (+3.3%) after (+3.2%) in December. The shelter index increased (+4.4%), its lowest 12-month increase since January 2022. Indexes with significant increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+11.8%), medical care (+2.6%), education (+3.8%), and recreation (+1.6%).
The Labor Department reported that the producer price index for final demand, which measures the prices that producers pay for goods and services, advanced a seasonally adjusted (+0.4%) in January; this follows an upwardly revised (+0.5%) in December and a downwardly revised (+0.2%) in November. For the 12-month period ending in January 2025, the headline PPI rose by an unadjusted 3.5%. Final demand services advanced (+0.3%), marking the sixth straight increase. Traveler accommodation services increased (+5.7%), accounting for over one-third of the increase in final demand services. Final demand goods advanced (+0.6%), marking the fourth straight increase. A (+1.7%) rise in final demand energy prices accounted for more than half of the overall increase, with a (+10.4%) increase in the index for diesel fuel being a major factor. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the core PPI increased (+0.3%), following an upwardly revised (+0.4%) for December. For the 12-month period ending in January 2025, core PPI inflation rose by an unadjusted 3.4%.
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