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The Labor Department reported the consumer price index increased 0.3% in January, this follows seasonally adjust readings of (+0.2%), (+0.2%), and (+0.1%), over the previous months. The all items index has increased (+3.1%) over the last 12 months. This compares to readings of (+3.4%), (+3.1%), and (+3.2%) over the previous months. Over two-thirds of the all items increase is attributable to a (+0.6%) rise in the shelter index, which has increased 45 consecutive months. The food index increased (+0,4%), and follows readings of (+0.2%), (+0.2%), and (+0.3%) over the previous months. The energy index decreased (-0.9%) as decreases in the indexes for fuel oil (-4.5%) and gasoline (-3.3%) were partially offset by increases in the indexes for electricity (+1.2%) and gas (+2.0%). Core CPI inflation which excludes food and energy increased (+0.4%) in January and follows readings of (+0.3%), (+0.3%), and (+0.2%) over the previous months. The annual rate of core CPI inflation increased (+3.9%) as compared to (+3.9%), (+4.0%), and (+4.0%) over the previous months. Core goods prices fell (-0.3%) and core services prices rose (+0.7%). The shelter index increased (+6.0%) year over year, and was the largest contributor the total increase in Core CPI. Other indexes with significant increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+20.6%), recreation (+2.8%), personal care (+5.3%), and medical care (+1.1%).
The Commerce Department reported advance U.S. retail and food services sales decreased (-0.8%) to $700.3B in January, this follows a downwardly revised (+0.4%) increase in December. Retail sales were up (+0.6%) year over year. Total sales for November 2023 through January 2024 were up (+3.1%) year over year. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Excluding sales at auto dealerships and gas stations, sales were down (- 0.5%). Sales declines were broad-based with negative readings coming from motor vehicles & parts (-1.7%), building materials (-4.1%), personal care (-1.1%), gas stations (-1.7%), clothing (-0.2%), sporting & hobby (-0.2%), miscellaneous retail (-3.0%), and internet retail (-0.8%). Restaurants, the only services category increased (+0.7%) in January and is up (+6.3%) year over year. Sales were up slightly at home furnishings (+1.5%), grocery stores (+0.6%), and department stores (+0.5%). Core retail sales, a measurement that excludes spending on autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services decreased (-0.4%) in January. December’s core retail sales were revised to show sales increasing (+0.6%) instead of (+0.8%).
The Labor Department reported that the producer price index for final demand, which measures the prices that producers pay for goods and services, increased by a seasonally adjusted (+0.3%) in January, marking the fastest pace in five months. This follows readings of (-0.1%), (-0.1%), (-0.4%), and (+0.2%). On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased (+0.9%) for the 12 months ending January 2024. The index for final demand services rose (+0.6%), the largest increase since July 2023’s reading of (+0.8%). This follows three consecutive months of no change. A (+2.2%) increase in the index for hospital outpatient care was a major contributor to the rise in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods fell for the fourth consecutive month (-0.2%). This follows readings of (-0.3%), (-0.1%), and (-1.3%). Most of the decrease in prices for final demand goods is attributable to a (-1.7%) decline in prices for final demand energy, as the price of gasoline fell (-3.6%). Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PPI increased (+0.3%) for the month. This follows three consecutive months of a (+0.1%) reading. The core PPI is up (+2.6%) from a year ago. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI rose (+0.6%), the biggest increase in a year. This follows readings of (+0.2%), (+0.1%), and (+0.1%) over the previous months.
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