The Commerce Department reported advance U.S. retail and food services sales increased (+0.6%) to $709.9B in December, this follows a (+0.3%) increase in November. Retail sales are up (+5.6%) year over year. Total retail sales for all of 2023 reported up (+3.2%) over 2022. Total sales for October 2023 through December 2023 were up (+3.9%) year over year. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Contributing to the increase were strong readings from both internet retail (+1.5%) and motor vehicles & parts (+1.1%). Sales increases were broad based with clothing (+1.5%), general merchandise (+1.3%), miscellaneous retail (+0.7%), building materials (+0.4%), sporting & hobby (+0.3%), and food & beverage (+0.2%) all contributing. Personal care (-1.4%), gas stations (-1.3%), home furnishings (-1.0%), and electronics & appliances (-0.3%) offset the gains. Food service sales were flat. Core retail sales, a measurement that excludes spending on autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services increased (+0.8%) in December. November’s core retail sales were revised to show sales increasing (+0.5%) instead of (+0.4%).

Manufacturing activity in the Third Federal Reserve District, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware reported down overall. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is seen as good indicator of the broader Chicago Fed's National Activity Index. A negative reading shows contraction, while a positive reading is indicative of expansion. Although the survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all increased in January, they remained in negative territory. The index for current general activity reported in at -10.6, bettering December’s -12.8, and marking the 18th negative reading in the past 20 months. The index for current new orders rose to -17.9 from -22.1. The index for current shipments rose to -6.2 from -11.2 in December. Employment was little changed as the employment index edged down slightly to -1.8 from -1.7 in December. The prices paid index fell to 11.3 from 24.3 in December, while the prices received index dropped to 6.3 from 12.2. The survey's broad indicators for future activity declined, as the index for future general activity tumbled to -4.0 from an upwardly revised reading of 12.6 in December. The future activity reading suggests a somewhat pessimistic outlook for overall growth over the next six months.

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 1.0% in December to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 3.78M, down (-6.2%) as compared to December 2022. On an annual basis existing-home sales dropped to 4.09M, the lowest level since 1995. "The latest month's sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Sales of single-family homes decreased (-0.3%) to a 3.41M annual rate (-6.1% Y/Y) and existing condo sales dropped (-7.3%) to a 380K annual rate (-7.3% Y/Y). Total housing inventory was down (-11.5%) to1.0M (+4.2% Y/Y). Properties typically remained on the market for 29 days, up from 25 days in November. Unsold inventory reported in at a 3.2-month run rate, down from 3.5 months in November, and up from 2.9 months in December 2022. Fifty-Six percent of homes sold in December were on the market for less than a month. The median sales price increased to $382,600 (+4.4% Y/Y). The median existing single-family home price was $387,000 (+4.0% Y/Y), while the median existing condo price was $343,800 (+8.2% Y/Y). Regionally sales were mixed - Northeast (0.0% M/M, -9.6% Y/Y), Midwest (-4.3% M/M, -10.9% Y/Y), South (-2.8% M/M, -4.4% Y/Y), and West (+7.8% M/M, -1.4% Y/Y).