The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® fell to 98.7 (1985 = 100) in September from an upwardly revised 105.6 the previous month. This represents the largest decline since August 2021. Primary contributors to the decline were a negative assessment of current business conditions and increased pessimism about the labor market, in particular future job prospects. The Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers’ sentiment toward current business conditions and the labor market, tumbled to 124.3 from 134.0 the previous month. Consumers saying current business conditions were good declined to 18.8% from 21.1%. The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions over the next six months, declined to 81.7 from an upwardly revised 86.3. A reading below 80 can suggest a recession in the near future. Consumers expecting fewer jobs to be available increased to 18.3% from 17.0%.

The U.S Census Bureau reported that sales of newly built homes decreased (-4.7%) in August. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 716,000 is up (+9.8%) from a year earlier. Three regions reported sales declines, as the Northeast lead with a (-27.3%) drop and only the South saw a (+2.7%) increase. The average sale price for a new home sold in August was $492,700, down from $508,200 the previous month. The median new home sales price slipped to $420,600 from $429,000 the previous month. There were 467,000 new homes for sale as of the end of August, the majority of which were under construction (260,000). The supply of new homes for sale increased to a seasonally adjusted 7.8-month supply, as compared to 7.3 months in July. The supply of new homes for sale was 7.9 months a year earlier

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods were little changed at a seasonally adjusted $289.7 billion in August; this follows a (+9.9%) increase the previous month. A decrease in nondefense aircraft orders of (-7.5%) to $21.8B had a negative effect on new orders; however, this was offset by increases in defense aircraft orders (+8.4%) to $6.0B and electrical equipment purchases (+1.9%) to $14.4B. Excluding transportation, new orders increased (+0.5%). Excluding defense, new orders slipped (-0.2%). Shipments of manufactured durable goods decreased (-0.5%) from (+1.1%) the previous month. Core capital goods orders, which exclude the volatile aircraft and defense orders, increased (+0.2%); this followed a downwardly revised (-0.2%) reading for July. Core durable goods shipments increased (+0.1%); this follows a (-0.4%) reading for the previous month.