The Chicago Business Barometer™ which reflects the health of the manufacturing and service sectors in the Chicago area, fell to 36.9 in December from 42.7 the previous month, signaling a sharp contraction. This marks the lowest reading since May 2024. Also known as the Chicago PMI, the last time it was above 50 and in expansion territory was when it was 55.8 in November 2022. The index has been declining (below 50) ever since, which is indicative of a general downturn in business activity in the Chicago area. The Chicago PMI's ongoing decline increases the likelihood that weaker national manufacturing data is in the offing. The decline was driven primarily by weaker new orders (-13.5) points and production levels (-2.9) points. Some improvement was noted in areas like employment (+11.9) points and supplier deliveries (+9.7) points, but these were not enough to offset the broader negative trends.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index rose (+2.2%) in November to 79.0, the highest reading since February 2023. The Pending Home Sales Index tracks the transactions of home sale contracts not yet completed in the US, where an index of 100 is the average contract activity in 2001. Month over month, pending home sales increased in the South (+5.2% to 94.5), followed by the West (+0.5% to 64.3) and the Midwest (+0.4% to 78.1). Only the Northeast saw a decrease (-1.3% to 67.8). Year over year, pending sales have increased (+6.9%). Year over year figures increased in all regions, with the West (+11.8%) leading the way, followed by the South (+8.5%), Northeast (+5.6%), and Midwest (+1.6%). Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, stated that "consumers appeared to have recalibrated expectations regarding mortgage rates and are taking advantage of more available inventory.”

The US Energy Information Administration reported that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.2M barrels to 415.6M barrels (5% below the five-year average) for the week ending December 27th. Gasoline inventories increased by 7.7M barrels (slightly below the five-year average). Distillate inventories increased by 6.4M barrels (6% below the five-year average). Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 9.3 M barrels. Refineries operated at 92.7% of their operable capacity. Crude oil imports came in at 6.9M bpd, an increase of 455K bpd as compared to the previous week. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 665K bpd, and distillate fuel imports averaged 197K bpd.