Seasonally adjusted, the S&P Global US Manufacturing (PMI®) rose slightly from 51.3 in May to 51.6 in June, a three-month high. This is the sixth reading in 2024 above 50, indicating expansion. The index showed a slight improvement in the business conditions amid higher costs and challenging economic conditions. New orders increased for the second consecutive month, even though customer demand remained modest and business confidence fell to a 19-month low. June showed no change in new export orders after four months of increases. Employment increased for the sixth consecutive month, and it did so at the quickest rate in twenty-one months. Businesses hired more workers to fulfill increased current output requirements and because of expectations for an increase in new orders.

During a panel discussion at the monetary policy conference of the European Central Bank in Portugal, Fed Chair Powell indicated there was continued progress defeating high inflation. Powell stated "I think the last reading, and the one before it to a lesser extent, do suggest that we are getting back on a disinflationary path," he said. "We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2% before we start the process of loosening policy." Powell added that the Fed continues to weigh several factors when deciding whether to reduce its benchmark interest rate, which it has raised eleven times since March 2022 to its current range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 23 years. Powell said. "We've made a lot of progress. We just want to understand that the levels that we're seeing are a true reading of what's happening with underlying inflation."

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 206,000 jobs were added as the unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1% in June. The number of unemployed was up slightly to 6.8M. A year earlier, the unemployment rate was 3.6%, and the number of unemployed was 6.0M. Job gains occurred in government (+70,000), health care (+49,000), social assistance (+34,000), and (+27,000) construction. Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers decreased (-121,000) to a seasonally adjusted 1.643M, and the number of reentrants to the labor force increased (+48,000) to 2.094M. The labor force participation ticked up to 62.6% from 62.5% in May. Average hourly earnings grew 0.33%. At $35.00 average hourly earnings are up 3.9% from a year ago.