The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® decreased for the third consecutive month, falling to 97.0 (1985=100) in April, which represents the lowest level since July 2022. The headline reading is down from March’s downwardly revised 103.1. The primary drivers behind the decline were consumer pessimism regarding the current labor market and concerns about future business conditions, job availability, and income. The Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers' sentiment toward current business conditions and the labor market, decreased to 142.9 from a downwardly revised 146.8. The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions over the next six months, fell to 66.4 from the upwardly revised figure of 74.0. A reading below 80 may indicate a possible recession in the near future.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate within a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the same level set since the central bank's July 2023 meeting. This marks the highest level in over two decades and the sixth consecutive meeting with no increase. The decision was expected, given inflation has continued to climb during the first three months of 2024. The FOMC statement reiterated that it won't be cutting rates "until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%”. Starting in June, the Fed will ease back on the reduction of securities holdings on its balance sheet by lowering the monthly cap on Treasury securities redemption from $60 billion to $25 billion.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 175,000 jobs were added as the unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.9% in April. The number of unemployed was up slightly to 6.5M. A year earlier, the unemployment rate was 3.1%, and the number of unemployed was 5.1M. Job gains occurred in health care (+56,000), social assistance (+31,000), and transportation & warehousing (+22,000). Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers increased (+101,000) to a seasonally adjusted 1.756M, and the number of reentrants to the labor force increased (+9,000) to 1.929M. The labor force participation was unchanged at 62.7%. Average hourly earnings grew 0.2%. At $34.75 average hourly earnings are up 3.9% from a year ago.