The Commerce Department reported factory orders increased (+1.4%) in February to $576.8B, after two consecutive months of decline. Factory orders are up (+1.0%) year over year. Orders for durable goods reported up (+1.3%) to $277.7B, following a (-6.9%) decline in January. Most of the rise in durable goods orders was driven by transportation which increased (+3.3%) to $90.4B. Commercial aircraft orders jumped (+24.6%) after tumbling (-63.5%) in January. Orders for motor vehicle bodies, parts and trailers increased (+0.3%), following a flat reading for January. Orders for machinery (+1.8%) and primary metals (+0.7%) also saw increases, while computers and electronic products reported a drop of (-1.4%). Orders for non-durable goods advanced (+1.6%) to $299.0B. Shipments of manufactured goods rebounded (+1.2%) or $3.3 billion to $286.6B after two consecutive months of decline. Inventories at factories rose (+0.3%) in February, following a (+0.1%) reading in January. Inventories have now reported up for seven consecutive months. Unfilled orders at factories were unchanged for a second straight month. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft or “core” capital goods grew (+0.7%) in February, while shipments of core capital goods declined (-0.6%).

The ISM® (Institute for Supply Management®) Manufacturing PMI® for March reported at 50.3% as manufacturing activity entered into expansion territory after being in contraction for 16 consecutive months. The New Orders Index moved back into expansion territory to 51.4%, besting February’s 49.2%. The Production Index at 54.6% was 6.2 percentage points higher than in February. The Prices Index at 55.8% surpassed February’s 52.5%. The Backlog of Orders Index was 46.3%, unchanged from February. The Employment Index registered 47.4% up from February’s 45.9%. Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) commented that "Demand remains at the early stages of recovery, with clear signs of improving conditions. Production execution surged compared to January and February, as panelists’ companies reenter expansion. Suppliers continue to have capacity but are showing signs of struggling, due in large part to their raw material supply chains. Thirty percent of manufacturing GDP contracted in March, down from 40 percent in February. More importantly, the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 1 percent in March, the same as in February, but categorically healthier than the 27 percent recorded in January".

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 303,000 jobs were added as the unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1 percentage point to 3.8% in March. January and February payrolls were both revised, combining to show (+22,000) more jobs. The number of unemployed decreased (-29,000) to 6.4M. A year earlier, the unemployment rate was 4.0%, and the number of unemployed was 6.0M. Job gains occurred in health care (+72,000), government (+71,000), leisure & hospitality (+49,000), and construction (+39,000). In addition, retail trade added (+18,000) jobs while the “other services” category added (+16,000). Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers decreased (-65,000) to a seasonally adjusted 1.655M, and the number of reentrants to the labor force decreased (-26,000) to 1.920M. The labor force participation increased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.7%, leaving it still below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%. Average hourly earnings grew 0.3%. At $34.69 average hourly earnings are up 4.1% from a year ago.