The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined in July to 95.7, down 2.7 points from 98.4 in June. The Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers’ sentiment toward current business conditions and the labor market, decreased to 141.3 from 98.4 in June. “Consumer confidence fell for a third consecutive month in July,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decrease was driven primarily by a decline in the Present Situation Index—a sign growth has slowed at the start of Q3. The Expectations Index held relatively steady, but remained well below a reading of 80, suggesting recession risks persist. Concerns about inflation—rising gas and food prices, in particular—continued to weigh on consumers.” The expectations index, based on consumers’ six-month outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions ticked down to 65.3 in July from 65.8 the previous month. The share of consumers that said jobs are currently plentiful down to 50.1% down from 51.5%. Consumers that said jobs are currently hard to get bumped up to 12.3% from 11.6%.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods increased 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted $272.6 billion in June. The increase followed a 0.8% increase in May. A primary contributor to the increase was transportation equipment up 5.1% to 92.7. On a year-over-year basis, new orders for manufactured durable goods grew 11.1%. Ex-defense orders rose 0.4% month over month, while ex-transportation orders also rose 0.3%. Core capital goods orders, which exclude the volatile aircraft and defense orders increased by 0.1%, this followed a 0.9% increase in May. Core durable goods shipments increased 0.3% in June, this followed a 1.5% increase in May, and are up 11.7% year over year. Total durable-goods orders are up 11.3% from a year ago.

The first estimate of GDP for 2022 Q2 reported a 0.9% decrease and follows a 1.6% 2022 Q1 decrease. Decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment all contributed to the decline. Inventories which helped boost GDP in 2021 were a big factor, reducing the GDP by 2 percentage points. A decrease in retail trade, primarily across general merchandise stores and motor vehicle dealers, pulled down inventory investment. Residential investment dropped 14%. Government spending across state, federal, and local governments declined 1.9%. Business investment fell 0.1% due to decreases in structures and equipment spending. Partially offsetting the Q2 decrease were increases in exports (+18.0) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Consumer spending which accounts for roughly two-thirds of domestic activity increased an inflation adjusted 1%, a decline from Q1’s +2.7%. Spending on services increases (+4.1%) but was offset by declines in nondurable goods (-5.5%) and durable goods (-2.6%).