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The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable climbed (+9.9%) to a seasonally adjusted $289.6 billion in July, this follows a downwardly revised (-6.9%) drop the previous month. Much of the increase came from strong growth in transportation equipment which surged (+34.8%) to $102.2B, with new orders for aircraft being the primary driver. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased (-0.2%). Excluding defense, new orders climbed (+10.4%). Shipments of manufactured durable goods increased (+1.1%), down slightly from (+1.2%) the previous month. Core capital goods orders, which exclude the volatile aircraft and defense orders decreased (-0.1%), this followed a downwardly revised (+0.5%) reading for June. Core durable goods shipments decreased (-0.4%), this follows an upwardly revised flat reading for the previous month.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® increased to 103.9 (1985=100) in August, from an upwardly revised 101.9 the previous month. The primary driver behind the increase were improved expectations for the future. The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions over the next six months, improved to 82.5 from an upwardly revised figure of 81.1 the previous month. A reading below 80 can suggest a recession in the near future. Consumers’ expectations for better business conditions rose to 18.4% in August from 15.2%, while their expectations of more employment being available jumped to 16.1% from 15.2%. The percentage of consumers anticipating a rise in income dropped from 17.2% to 16.9%. The Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers’ sentiment toward current business conditions and the labor market, increased to 134.4 from a 133.1.
The Commerce Department’s second estimate on the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reported the economy expanded at an annual rate of (+3.0%), up from the first estimate of (+2.8%), and the (+1.4%) registered in Q1. The update reflected an upward revision to consumer spending which was partially offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction from the GDP were revised up. Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures rose (+2.9%), an upward revision of 0.5 percentage point. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased at a (+2.5%) annual rate, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Excluding food and energy, core prices for personal consumption expenditures, a preferred measure of inflation by the Fed, rose (+2.8%), a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point.
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