Subject: Investor Warnings

ISM Manufacturing Index, International Trade, Employment Situation | View this email in your browser

 
   
 

 
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Investor Warnings

 

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Economy

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index for June dropped by -0.4 to 51.7, the lowest reading since October 2016, indicating expansion was continuing but at a slower rate. New orders dropped -2.7 to a flat 50.0, while inventories (49.1), customer inventories (44.6), prices (47.9), and order backlogs (47.4) were all below 50.0, indicating a contraction in those areas. However, production rose +2.8 to 54.1 and employment rose +0.8 to 54.5, with thirteen of the 18 industry categories reporting growth and production decreases reported only for Apparel, Transportation Equipment, Primary Metals, Fabricated Metals, and Plastic & Rubber products. Selected quotes from respondents noted concerns over tariffs, weather, and finding qualified employees, but also noted continuing strong global demand.

 

In May imports rose by $8.5 billion to $266.2 billion, overtaking a gain of +$4.2 billion for exports to $210.6 billion and resulting in a widening of the trade deficit to $55.5 billion    (+8.4%). The largest export increases were for soybeans (+$0.7 billion), automotive vehicles (+$0.6 billion), and civilian aircraft (+$0.5 billion), and the largest import increases were for automotive vehicles (+$2.3 billion), crude oil (+$1.3 billion), and consumer goods (+$1.4 billion). Year-to-date compared to 2018, the deficit is +$15.7 billion higher, with exports up +$5.1 billion (+0.5%) and imports up +$20.8 billion (+1.6%). The largest trade deficit was with China at $30.1 billion, followed by the European Union ($16.9 billion) and Mexico ($9.1 billion), while surpluses were recorded with South/Central America ($4.1 billion), Hong Kong ($2.6 billion), and Singapore ($0.6 billion).

 

There were 224,000 jobs created in June, but a +0.1% uptick in the labor force participation rate to 62.9% increased the pool of available workers and raised the unemployment rate by +0.1% to 3.7%. The highest number of jobs were created in professional/business services (51,000), followed by health care (35,000), transportation/warehousing (24,000), construction (21,000) and manufacturing (17,000), with manufacturing seeing its first significant employment increase in 4 months. Average hourly earnings rose by 6-cents in June after a 9‑cent gain in May to $27.90/hour, with wages gaining +3.1% on a yearly basis. The U-6 unemployment rate, which also accounts for discouraged and underemployed workers, rose by +0.1% to 7.2%, down from 7.8% in June 2018.

Upcoming Events:

Thursday July 11 - Consumer Price Index

Friday July 12 - Producer Price Index

Earnings Calendar

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Grupo
Televisa
(TV)
PepsiCo
(PEP)
MSC Industrial
Direct Co
(MSM)
Delta
Air Lines
(DAL)
Hingham
Institution
(HIFS)
AZZ
(AZZ)
Levi
Strauss
(LEVI)
Bed Bath
& Beyond
(BBBY)
Farmers &
Merchants Bank
(BYSI)
Educational
Development
(EDUC)

 

 

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