The Labor Department reported the consumer price index increased (+0.4%) in February, this follows seasonally adjust readings of (+0.3%), (+0.2%), and (+0.2%), over the previous months. The all items index has increased (+3.2%) over the last 12 months. This compares to readings of (+3.1%), (+3.4%), and (+3.1%) over the previous months. Over sixty percent of the all items increase is attributable to a (+0.4%) rise in the shelter index, which has increased 46 consecutive months, and a (+3.8%) increase in the gasoline index. Before seasonal adjustment gasoline increased (+4.3%). The food index was unchanged and follows readings of (+0.4%), (+0.2%), and (+0.2%) over the previous months. The energy index increased (+2.3%) as the indexes for gasoline (+3.8%), fuel oil (+1.1%), electricity (+0.3%) and gas (+2.3%) all rose. Core CPI inflation which excludes food and energy increased (+0.4%) in February and follows readings of (+0.4%), (+0.3%), and (+0.3%) over the previous months. The annual rate of core CPI inflation increased (+3.8%) as compared to (+3.9%), (+3.9%), and (+4.0%) over the previous months. Core goods prices increased (+0.1%) and core services prices rose (+0.5%). The shelter index increased (+5.8%) year over year, contributing to roughly two thirds of the total 12-month increase in Core CPI. Other indexes with significant increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+20.6%), medical care (+1.4%), recreation (+2.1%) and personal care (+4.2%).

The US Energy Information Administration reported that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.5M barrels to 447.0M barrels (3% below the five-year average) for the week ending March 8th, this marks the first decrease in seven weeks. A decrease in inventories for gasoline was partially offset by an increase in distillate inventories, and an increase in refinery capacity use. Gasoline inventories decreased by 5.7M barrels (3% below the five-year average) and follows a 4.5M barrels drop the previous week. Distillate inventories increased by 0.9M barrels (7% below the five-year average) and follows a 4.1M barrels reduction the previous week. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped by 4.7M barrels. Crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7M bpd, an increase of 390K bpd as compared to the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 86.8% of their operable capacity up from 84.9% the previous week, as gasoline production increased to an average of 9.9M bpd and distillate fuel production increased to an average 4.6M bpd. Crude oil imports came in at 5.5M bpd, a decrease of 1.7M bpd as compared to the previous week. Crude oil imports averaged about 6.4M bpd over the last four weeks, 2.9% more than the same period last year. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 634K bpd, and distillate fuel imports averaged 171K bpd.

The Commerce Department reported advance U.S. retail and food services sales increased (+0.6%) to $700.7B in February, this follows a revised reading of (-1.1%) instead of (-0.8%) for January. Retail sales were up (+1.5%) year over year. Total sales for December 2023 through February 2024 were up (+2.1%) year over year. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Excluding sales at auto dealerships and gas stations, sales increased (+0.3%). Sales were up across multiple categories; led by building materials (+2.2%), motor vehicles & parts (+1.6%), electronics & appliances (+1.5%), gas stations (+0.9%), and miscellaneous retail (+0.6%). Restaurants, the only services category increased (+0.4%), this follows a revised reading of (-1.0%) instead of (+0.7%) for January. Restaurants are up (+6.3%) year over year. Sales declined at home furnishings (-1.1%), clothing (-0.5%), personal care (-0.3%), department stores (-0.2%), grocery (-0.1%), and internet retail (-0.1%). Core retail sales, a measurement that excludes spending on autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services were flat in February. January’s core retail sales were revised to show sales decreasing (-0.3%) instead of (-0.4%).