The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) declined by 0.7% in March 2025, falling to 100.5, signaling a potential slowdown in U.S. economic activity. The drop was largely due to a weakened consumer outlook, a sharp fall in stock prices, and declining new manufacturing orders— factors likely influenced by the uncertainty surrounding pending tariff announcements. Despite the LEI's decline, The Conference Board does not believe a recession has begun or is imminent. However, it revised its 2025 U.S. GDP growth projection down to 1.6%, reflecting concerns over intensifying trade tensions, which could result in rising inflation, supply chain challenges, lower business investment and consumer spending, and a softer job market. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) inched up by 0.1% to 114.4, indicating that current economic conditions remain stable. The Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) edged down 0.1% to 119.1, although its six-month growth rate stayed positive at 0.7% from September 2024 to March 2025.

The S&P Global Flash US PMI® report showed a marked slowdown in US business activity, with output growth hitting a 16-month low in April. The Composite Output Index's preliminary 'flash' reading fell to 51.2 from 53.5, signaling a deceleration in economic growth primarily driven by falling business confidence and higher selling prices. Weak demand and falling exports caused a notable drop in the Services PMI Business Activity Index to 51.4, indicating a sharp deceleration in service sector growth. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Output Index saw a marginal increase to 50.2, driven by domestic orders, which were partially offset by declining exports. Despite a slight uptick in manufacturing jobs, overall employment remained soft due to cautious hiring amid rising costs and labor availability issues. Business sentiment about the future fell for a third successive month, dropping sharply, a pessimistic outlook that will likely impact economic policies and inflation controls.

The U.S. Census Bureau report mixed performance in the housing market for March, with building permits increasing slightly as compared to February 2025, while housing starts declined significantly. There were 1.482 million building permits issued, a 1.6% increase from February but a 0.2% decrease from March 2024. Single-family building permits dipped 2.0%, while two-to-four-unit permits grew 3.5% and those with five or more units surged 10.1%. Meanwhile, housing starts fell by 11.4% to 1.324M compared to the previous month yet rose by 1.9% year-over-year, as single-family starts sank 14.2%. Housing completions declined by 2.1% from February to 1.549M, while increasing by 3.9% compared to March 2024. The number of houses approved for construction but not yet started increased 4.3% to 288K units, with the backlog for single-family housing increasing 6.5% to 148K.