The Commerce Department reported a trade deficit of $73.1 billion in June, down (-$1.9B) from a revised $75.0B in May. The narrower trade deficit can be attributed to a (+$3.9B) increase in exports to $265.9B that was offset by (+$2.0B) increase in imports to $339.0B. The services surplus dropped by (-$0.6B) to $24.2B, while the goods deficit shrank by (-$2.5B) to $97.4B. Exports of goods were buoyed by increases in capital goods (+$1.9B) and industrial supplies (+$1.4B), while exports of services dropped (-$0.4B) due a decline in travel services (spending by visitors to the US). Imports of goods were driven by increases in consumer goods (+$2.3B) and capital goods (+$2.2B), while industrial supplies decreased (-$1.9B). June saw a (-$1.6B) decrease in the trade deficit with China to $22.3B, as imports to China fell (-$0.8B) to $34.8B and exports rose by (+$0.8B) to $12.5B.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for August 2024 forecasts that crude oil prices will rise in the second half of the year, reaching between $85 and $90 per barrel. This is primarily due to declining global oil inventories caused by OPEC+ production cuts. Global consumption of liquid fuels is expected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 and 1.6 b/d in 2025. However, the projected growth rate was revised lower due to slowing economic growth in China. Natural gas consumption is expected to decline 2% from July to an average of 46 billion cubic feet per day as milder weather in August is likely to reduce natural gas consumption for electricity generation. Electricity rates for residential consumers are predicted to increase by around 1% in 2024, marking the lowest percentage growth since 2020.

The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims decreased 17,000 to 233,000 for the week ending August 3rd. The four-week moving average was 240,750, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s upwardly revised average. Of the 53 states and U.S. territories that report jobless claims, 25 reported declines and 28 reported increases or no change. For the week ending July 27th, the insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2%. The total number of unemployment claims reported in at 1.875M up 6,000 from the previous week’s downwardly revised level. The level for insured unemployment has not been this high since November 27, 2021, when it was 1.878M. For the week ending June 20th, 1.960M people were receiving jobless benefits through state or federal programs, an increase of 21,649 from the previous week. There were some 1.852M weekly claims filed for the comparable week in 2023.