The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes dropped (-5.4%) in June to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 3.89M, and also down (-5.4%) as compared to May 2023. Sales declined in all regions, with the Midwest (-8.0%) seeing the biggest drop. Sales of single-family homes dropped (-5.1%) to a 3.52M annual rate (-4.3% Y/Y) and existing condo sales sank (-7.5%) to a 370K annual rate (-14.0% Y/Y). Total housing inventory reported up (+3.1%) to 1.32M (+24.4% Y/Y). Properties typically remained on the market for 22 days, down from 24 days in May. Unsold inventory climbed (+3.1%) to a 4.1 month run rate, up from 3.7 months in May. The median existing-home price for all housing reached a record high for the second consecutive month; $426,900 (+4.1% Y/Y). All four U.S. regions registered price gains. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.77% as of July 18, down from 6.89% a week earlier, but up slightly from 6.78% a year ago.

The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI®, which measures activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 55.0 (a 27-month high) in June from 54.8 the previous month. The service sector lead the upturn while manufacturing output slid into contraction for the first time in six months. The US Services Business Activity Index increased to 56.0 (a 28-month high), up from 55.3 in May. The US Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5 (a 7-month low) from 52.1 the previous month. A drop in new orders, production, and inventories contributed to the decline. A reduced rate of employment growth also dragged the US Manufacturing PMI down. When these indicators have a reading above 50 the sector is expanding. The performance gap between services and manufacturing is at its highest level since June 2023, highlighting the uneven nature of the economic recovery.

The Commerce Department’s first estimate on the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reported the economy expanded at an annual rate of (+2.8%), up from the previous quarter's (+1.4%) growth rate, and (+2.5%) for all of 2023. Consumer spending as measured by personal consumption expenditures was the primary contributor increasing (+2.3%) for the quarter. Consumer spending was responsible for 1.57 percentage points (pp) of the total GDP increase. The increase in PCE was driven by spending on services (+2.2%), which added (1.02 pp) to the GDP, while spending on goods increased (+2.5%), adding (0.55 pp). Inventories also were a significant contributor, adding (0.82 pp). Government spending at the federal level rose (+3.9%) adding (0.53 pp). Core prices for personal consumption expenditures, a preferred measure of inflation by the Fed, rose (+2.9%) as compared to a (+3.7%) increase in Q1, and (+4.1%) for all of 2023.