The Institute for Supply Management’s November 2019 Manufacturing Report on Business showed a drop in the PMI index to 48.1% (-0.2%) as manufacturing contraction continued for the fourth consecutive month. Panel comments were described as consistent with October, with overall improving sentiment although sentiment for near term growth was neutral. Global trade continued as the most significant issue across all industries with comments noting global slowdown and uncertainty regarding tariffs.

Imports fell by -1.7% to $254.3 billion (-$4.3 billion) in October, while exports fell -0.2% to $207.1 billion (-$0.4 billion), dropping the trade deficit to $47.2 billion. Exports fell for civilian aircraft engines (-$0.6 billion), pharmaceuticals (-$0.4 billion), and automobiles (-$0.3 billion), but rose for industrial supplies (+$0.6 billion) and services (+$0.3 billion). Imports fell for consumer goods (-$2.4 billion) and automobiles (-$0.5 billion), but rose for services (+$0.1 billion). The largest trade surpluses in October were with South and Central America (+4.7 billion), OPEC (+$1.9 billion), and Hong Kong (+$1.8 billion), and the largest deficits were with China (-$27.8 billion), the European Union (-$14.3 billion), and Mexico (-$7.8 billion).

There were +266,000 new jobs created in November, returning the unemployment rate back to a 50-year low of 3.5%. The strike at GM in October had contributed to a drop in manufacturing employment by -43,000 that month, and workers returning in November added +41,000 automotive workers, helping to boost manufacturing employment by an overall +54,000 jobs. Additional jobs gains occurred for health care (+45,000), professional services (+31,000), and leisure/hospitality (+45,000), while jobs were lost for mining (-7,000), and clothing retailing (-18,000). Wages were up $0.07 for the month to an average hourly wage of $28.29 (+3.1% Y/Y), with nonsupervisory employees also up +$0.07 to $23.83/hour. The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes underemployed and discouraged workers, dropped from 7.0% to 6.9%, down from 7.6% in November 2018.