An area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean has been gradually becoming better organized.

Model guidance indicates that the system should turn northwestward and slow down later today, followed by a turn toward the west and west-southwest tonight through Tuesday night. In about 3 days, Nicole is expected to make a sharp recurvature toward the north and northeast on days 4 and 5 in the vicinity of Florida.

The system could be at or near hurricane strength before it approaches the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Nicole is forecast to be a large storm, and regardless of the exact track of the system, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during much of the upcoming week.

Interests along the southeastern United States coast, especially along the east coast of Florida and in the central and northwestern Bahamas, should make sure they have their hunicane plan in place. Storm surge, tropical storm, and hurricane watches could be issued for portions of these areas later today.