Supplemental Info:
00:00 AM Moscow time = 5:00 PM in New York
Ukraine plays a crucial role in the global food supply. Nations around the world are dependent on the wheat, corn, barley and seed oils coming out of Ukraine's farmland. In just a few examples, Moldova and Lebanon import more than 80% of the wheat consumed in their countries from Ukraine. Qatar, 81%. Tunisia, Libya and Pakistan, just under 50%.
Prior to the Russian invasion, 98 percent of Ukraine’s grain exports were transported by ships via the Black Sea, to the Med, and out to the world's oceans. During the first few months of the war, this shipping was cut off, immediately impacting global food security. In response, the UN brokered the Black Sea Grains Initiative (BSGI), which facilitated the export of grains from three ports in Ukraine to Turkey. While far from an ideal solution, grain was moving, albeit below pre-war volumes.
Fast forward to last weekend. Russia has ended participation in the Black Sea Grains Initiative following the bombing of the Kerch Bridge linking Russia with the Crimean Peninsula.
Today, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation published the following statement via their Telegram channel:
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"In connection with the termination of the Black Sea Initiative and the curtailment of the maritime humanitarian corridor, from 00:00 Moscow time on July 20, 2023, all ships heading to Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea waters will be considered as potential carriers of military cargo."
"Accordingly, the flag countries of such vessels will be considered involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime."
"In addition, a number of sea areas in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the international waters of the Black Sea have been declared temporarily dangerous for navigation. Appropriate informational warnings about the withdrawal of safety guarantees to seafarers were issued in accordance with the established procedure."
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Why is this important? Consider just one example: Egypt.
According to the Washington Institute, the Egyptian government supplies subsidized bread to nearly 80 percent of Egypt’s 100 million residents, but the cost of purchasing the necessary wheat has risen by roughly 40 percent during the Ukraine war. In response, the government has reduced the amount of subsidized food Egyptians can receive.
This was prior to Russia pulling out of the Black Sea Grains Initiative.
A hungry population is a dangerous population.
