Subject: Hurricane Dorian Situation Update - Sept 2, 2019

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SMS Alert Text:

Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds likely along portions of the FL east coast regardless of track. See email for latest update.

Supplemental Info:

According to the National Hurricane Center, Dorian remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery. Recent radar and aircraft observations are again showing signs of a concentric eyewall structure which might be one of the factors that has led to a decrease in the peak winds and a small expansion of the wind field. The initial wind speed has been set at 125 kt. (143 MPH)  Some additional decrease in wind speed is likely in the short term due due to a possible eyewall replacement and upwelling of cooler waters caused by the very slow motion of the hurricane. Although some additional slow weakening is forecast while the hurricane moves northward along the southeastern United States coastline, Dorian is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane during that time. 

Dorian has become nearly stationary this afternoon with the two most recent aircraft fixes showing essentially no motion. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion should resume overnight and continue into early Tuesday, with the eye and devastating winds only slowly pulling away from Grand Bahama Island. By Tuesday afternoon, Dorian should begin its much anticipated northwestward turn as a weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge. Although the center of Dorian is forecast to move near, but parallel to, the Florida east coast, only a small deviation of the track toward the west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore. A broad mid-latitude trough should help turn Dorian northeastward by Wednesday night, and the track models show the center coming precariously close to the southeastern United States coast. The tracks from the 1200 UTC runs of the global models have remained fairly stable, which has resulted in little overall change to the latest NHC track forecast.

Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a point, and that life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds extend far from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast track, strong winds and a life-threatening storm surge are likely along a portion of the U.S east coast from Florida through the Carolinas.

Key Messages:
  1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through tonight. Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the eye.

  2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

  3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

  4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through Friday.
Storm Monitoring Resources:




Preparedness / Evacuation Resources:

Florida Evacuation Zone Map

Georgia Evacuation Zone Map


South Carolina Evacuation Zone Map


North Carolina Evacuation Zone Map


Those in need of evacuation assistance are urged to contact the county sheriff's office.


Traffic and Road Conditions

As is being widely reported through mainstream media, the potential for dangerous flooding as a result of Hurricane Dorian is high. As a result, increased situational awareness is advised if you or family members are heading out on the roads in the coming days.

National 511 System

The 511 system is a national traffic information resource established by the U.S. Dept of Transportation's (DOT) Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The system allows drivers in participating states/cities to dial “511" on their phones and receive real-time traffic information, such as:
  • Road closures
  • Accidents
  • Route detours
  • Weather alerts
  • AMBER alerts
  • Border crossing wait times
  • Highway conditions
  • Ride-sharing details
  • Live camera feeds
35 states currently participate in the 511 system.

When in a participating state, simply dial "511" on your mobile device. Depending on the time and system load, you will either hear recorded messages or speak directly with a human operator who can provide traffic information.

The following websites also provide information on road conditions in the Hurricane Michael impact states:

Florida

https://fl511.com/ (interactive map - real time conditions)

http://www.fdot.gov/info/traffic/trafficwarnings.shtm

Georgia

https://www.511ga.org (interactive map - real time conditions)

http://www.dot.ga.gov

South Carolina

https://www.511sc.org (interactive map - real time conditions)

https://www.scdot.org/travel/travel-road.aspx

North Carolina 


https://tims.ncdot.gov/tims/ (interactive map - real time conditions)



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AlertsUSA continues to monitor the situation closely and is in regular touch with the National Hurricane Center, DHS/FEMA, the naval meteorology and oceanography community, as well as individual state disaster management officials. In turn, we will keep AlertsUSA subscribers well informed of new developments during the approach of the storm as well as during the recovery period.

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