Subject: Hurricane Dorian Situation Update - Sept 1, 2019

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Hurricane and storm surge warnings now in effect for portions of the Florida coast. Important Hurricane Dorian update issued. See your email.

Supplemental Info:

According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 5:00 PM EDT, the distinct eye of powerful Hurricane Dorian is moving over Great Abaco. The latest wind and pressure data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane just before the eye hit the island indicated that the winds reached 160 kt (184 MPH), which is the initial intensity for this advisory. It is not very often that we measure such strong winds. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 910 mb.

The eye has been shrinking, and an eyewall replacement cycle is possibly occurring. The effect of the island terrain and the eyewall replacement cycle should result in some slight fluctuations in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the hurricane will continue to be extremely dangerous one during that time. After 3 days, a more definite weakening trend should begin as the hurricane encounters stronger shear. Dorian however, it is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next 5 days.

Dorian has slowed down even more and is now moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and Dorian is expected to slow down a little more, prolonging its catastrophic effects in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast calls for a slow west to west-northwest motion during the next 48 hours. A turn to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected thereafter. Both the deterministic and consensus tracks have shown the usual variability to the right or to the left from run to run, but the overall trend is for the hurricane to turn northward offshore but dangerously close to the Florida peninsula.

Given the uncertainty in the track forecast and the anticipated increase in size of the hurricane, a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning have been issued for a portion of the Florida east coast. It is once again emphasized that although the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track. A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense core of the hurricane its dangerous winds closer to or onto the Florida coast.

Key Messages:
  1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will affect the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island tonight. Everyone there should take immediate shelter and not venture into the eye.

  2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents should listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

  3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

  4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week.

Storm Monitoring Resources:




Preparedness / Evacuation Resources:

Florida Evacuation Zone Map

Georgia Evacuation Zone Map


South Carolina Evacuation Zone Map


North Carolina Evacuation Zone Map


Those in need of evacuation assistance are urged to contact the county sheriff's office.


Traffic and Road Conditions

As is being widely reported through mainstream media, the potential for dangerous flooding as a result of Hurricane Dorian is high. As a result, increased situational awareness is advised if you or family members are heading out on the roads in the coming days.

National 511 System

The 511 system is a national traffic information resource established by the U.S. Dept of Transportation's (DOT) Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The system allows drivers in participating states/cities to dial “511" on their phones and receive real-time traffic information, such as:
  • Road closures
  • Accidents
  • Route detours
  • Weather alerts
  • AMBER alerts
  • Border crossing wait times
  • Highway conditions
  • Ride-sharing details
  • Live camera feeds
35 states currently participate in the 511 system.

When in a participating state, simply dial "511" on your mobile device. Depending on the time and system load, you will either hear recorded messages or speak directly with a human operator who can provide traffic information.

The following websites also provide information on road conditions in the Hurricane Michael impact states:

Florida

https://fl511.com/ (interactive map - real time conditions)

http://www.fdot.gov/info/traffic/trafficwarnings.shtm

Georgia

https://www.511ga.org (interactive map - real time conditions)

http://www.dot.ga.gov

South Carolina

https://www.511sc.org (interactive map - real time conditions)

https://www.scdot.org/travel/travel-road.aspx

North Carolina 


https://tims.ncdot.gov/tims/ (interactive map - real time conditions)



PLEASE SHARE THIS EMAIL WITH FRIENDS AND FAMILY WHO MAY BE IMPACTED BY DORIAN. THEY MAY FIND THESE RESOURCES USEFUL.

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AlertsUSA continues to monitor the situation closely and is in regular touch with the National Hurricane Center, DHS/FEMA, the naval meteorology and oceanography community, as well as individual state disaster management officials. In turn, we will keep AlertsUSA subscribers well informed of new developments during the approach of the storm as well as during the recovery period.

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