Subject: UK Recovery May Be Faster Than Forecast ... Says Governor ...😃

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                                                                                                       Saturday 20th March 2021
Hi Friend,
UK Recovery May Be Faster Than Forecast ...
"I am more optimistic" says Governor ...
No rise in base rates this week. The MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.1%. The target for government bond purchases was maintained at £875 billion. The corporate bond stock was on hold at £20 billion.

The total target stock of asset purchases remains at £895 billion. Just as well really. Total government debt increased to almost 98% of GDP. The quantum of solace hit £2.13 trillion. Not long before the Chancellor will have exhausted, his first trillion pound bank note.

The Governor is feeling more optimistic about the prospects for the year. The vaccination programme continues at pace. The slow down in the economy, in the first quarter, is better than expected. Restaurant bookings are increasing. Domestic holiday reservations are rising, (with prices to match). Consumer confidence is on the rise. Business confidence in manufacturing and construction is particularly high.

Asked what sort of recovery the UK could expect, Andrew Bailey said "I am now more positive but with a large dose of caution". "We now see upside risks to our January forecast", with some chance the peak in unemployment, may be lower than expected.

In January, the Bank were forecasting growth of 5% for the current year. An upward revision seems probable. 6% to 6.5% growth, seems possible this year. In the US and China, the revisions have already been made. The IMF forecasts of 5.5% world growth this year, already out of date.

UK gilt yields closed higher. Up by just two basis points in the week, at 0.84, the Governor commented "We have seen some increase in rates over the last month or so. My assessment so far, is this is consistent with the change in economic outlook".

Sterling closed lower at $1.3868. The test of the $1.40 level completed our eighteen month pattern. Uncle Sam's zloty is gaining favor. The siren's call of ten year bond yields, up nine points in the week, too much to resist. 

In the US, the Fed held rates and maintained the asset purchase plan. The Fed is not yet ready to take away the punch bowl. Jerome Powell is topping up the punch bowl and handing out the spliffs ...
Topping Up the Punch Bowl ...
In the US this week, the Federal Reserve held rates and vowed to maintain the momentum of the asset purchase plan. The Fed will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury Securities by $80 billion dollars per month. $40 billion remains the monthly budget for mortgage backed securities.

The "accommodating" stance of monetary policy will be maintained until "substantial further progress has been made towards the committee's maximum employment and price stability goals." 

Last week the house approved Biden's $1.9 trillion spending plan. The White House is working on a further $2 trillion plan to follow, for infrastructure and business investment. The Fed is adding to a further $1.5 trillion to the asset purchase plan to help out. Forecasts for the US economy have been revised up. Growth of 6.5% is now expected for the year, compared to the 4.2% forecast in the December projections.

The forecasts for unemployment have been revised down, the forecasts for inflation have been revised up. Inflation is expected to rise above the 2% target to 2.4% in the short term. The Fed will "look through" any short term breach. Base rates are expected to be on hold into 2023. US ten year bond yields increased to 1.71%. 

Over fifty years ago, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, William McChesney said, the job of the central bank is to "take away the punch bowl just when the party gets going". For the moment, the Fed is topping up the punch bowl and handing out the spliffs.

Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Fed is creating the mother of all parties to ensure everyone is well inebriated before the mother of all hangovers will have to be addressed ... but not for some time yet ...

At the news conference on Wednesday, the Chairman was asked if it was time to start "talking about, talking about" slowing the central bank's buying of $80 billion in bonds each month. Powell let out a laugh before answering "Not Yet" ...

That's all for this week ... stay safe ...
John
© 2021 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, experience worth sharing.
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