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Saturday 14th November 2020
Hi Friend,
UK Economy Grew by over 15% in Q3 ...
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| Will the lock down derail the recovery ...
The latest data from the ONS confirm, the economy grew by 15.5% in the third quarter, compared to Q2. Year on year, GDP was down by 10%, compared to prior year.
The pattern of recovery is more or less as expected. We have talked in our recent broadcasts of a recovery by halves. An economy down by 20% in the second quarter, down by 10% in the third quarter, then down by 5% in the final quarter of he year.
For the year as a whole, output will be down by 10% in 2020, with a significant recovery in prospect for next year. Manufacturing and construction performed marginally better than we expected. Manufacturing output was down by 9% compared to prior year. Construction was down by 12.5%.
Sectors most badly hit, were accommodation and food, down almost 30%. The arts and entertainment sector was down by 25%. In travel, data from the Civil Aviation Authority, reports passenger numbers in UK terminals were down by 80% in the third quarter. Of itself, this is a considerable improvement on the 98% drop in Q2. No wonder then, Manchester airport is consolidating all activity into just one terminal, for the foreseeable future.
The latest jobs data reported an increase in unemployment to 1.5 million in the period to September. The unemployment rate increased to 4.8%. The level of redundancies, increased to over 300,000 in the quarter. The claimant count held steady at around 2.6 million.
So what happens next? Fear for tiers were swept away, by the decision to move into national lock down this month. The misery for many will continue. Hotels, bars, restaurants, pubs, non essential retail will suffer. Cinemas, theaters, sports and events will continue to feel the pain. Brakes on again, in the motor industry, registrations will be down by almost 40% this year.
Beneficiaries will continue to be, on line retail and logistics. Food delivery and last mile challenges will continue. Health and welfare will feature in continued uplift in activity.
The Bank of England has reduced GDP forecasts for the year, to a drop of 11.5%. It may not be so bad. The Chancellor has back tracked on the furlough scheme, extending support to the end of March next year. The peak in unemployment at between 2.5 to 3.0 million will be pushed back to Easter next year as a result.
Government borrowing may increase towards £400 billion in the process. The Chancellor has the trillion pound bank note in his back pocket to ease the pain ... as we discussed in full last week ...
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| No evidence of voter fraud ...
No evidence of voter fraud in the election of 2020, the verdict from 16 federal prosecutors this week. Evidence enough, of voter fraud, in the election of 2016 perhaps ...
Trump clings to power, denying the president elect access to messages of good will from around the world, now residing in the State Department Post box.
No access to top security briefings for Biden, no concession from Trump. No gracious acceptance speech. the President clings to office, as Biden's count in the electoral college increases to 306. Adding Georgia to the Democrat base this week, Trump for the first time on Friday came close to accepting, there would be a new administration in the White House on January 20th.
IIn his first official appearance in ten days
since polls closed on November 3, Trump said “This administration will not be
going to a lock down. Whatever happens in the future, who knows which administration it
will be. I guess time will tell”.
"The election was rigged", Trump tweeted on Friday. Sixteen federal prosecutors charged with investigating election crimes have said in a letter to Attorney General William Barr, "There is no evidence of voter fraud or other irregularities that could substantially impact the election."
In court, Republicans on Friday faced losses in Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania. Over the past two days, two prominent law firms have sought to withdraw from representing the Trump legal effort in Arizona and Pennsylvania.
Trump’s
claims of voting fraud have been contradicted by his own election
security agency, which called last week’s vote “the most secure in
American history”.
“There
is no evidence that any voting system, deleted votes, lost votes, changed
votes or was in any way compromised,” the Election Infrastructure
Government Coordinating Council (GCC) has now said.
Barack Obama has launched a scathing attack on Republicans
“humoring” Donald Trump over his refusal to concede he lost the
election, saying they were undermining both the incoming administration
and the nation’s democracy.
John Kelly, former White House chief of staff, criticized Trump over the delay to the Biden Transition. "It's about the nation" the delay is damaging to national security. President elect Joe Biden should start receiving intelligence briefings to get them up to speed as soon as possible".
This week, The President Elect made a phone call to Boris Johnson in which the Prime Minister congratulated Joe Biden on his victory. A Downing Street spokesperson said the prime minister had "warmly
congratulated" Mr Biden and "conveyed his congratulations" to Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris.
This week China also offered congratulations to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Foreign ministry spokesman Wang Benbin said "We express our congratulations to Mr Biden and Ms Harris. We respect the choice of the American people."
Yes China respects the choice of the American people. It is time for Donald Trump to do so too ...
That's all for this week! Have a great, safe, week-end ... Hands, Face and Space ...
John
Don't forget you can now listen the The Saturday Economist Live as a weekly Podcast ...
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