Subject: Traffic Levels Speed Up ... As Recovery Gathers Pace ...

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                                                                                                   Saturday 5th September 2020
Hi Friend,
Traffic Levels Speed Up ...
As Recovery Gathers Pace ...
Workers may yet be slow to return to the office but traffic levels are speeding up, according to the Department of Transport. Road traffic is gradually returning normal. Schools are re-opening. The volume of car traffic is returning to levels pre lock down. Light commercial vehicle traffic is already back to the levels of early March.

So is the recovery speeding up? The latest survey data from IHS Markit, suggests manufacturing production is rising at the fastest pace since May 2014. The overall volume index increased to 55.2 from 53.3 prior month. Output and new orders increase at "accelerated" rates as businesses re-opened.

The service sector reported a further rise in activity in August. The headline index increased to 58.8 in the month, up from 56.5 in July. This was almost double the levels of activity reported in the second quarter. A quarter in which the drop in GDP(O) for the sector was 20%. Providers reported the sharpest increase in new work since December 2016. Pent up demand in the housing market and the success of the "Eat Out To Help Out" scheme boosted the growth in activity.

Output in the construction sector continued in positive trend. The headline index registered 54.6, albeit down from the heady 58.1 recorded in July. House building remained the best performing category (60.7) with a slower performance recorded in commercial work (52.5) and civil engineering (46.6). Companies reported an improvement in business expectations for the year ahead, largely on the back of major infrastructure projects and public sector construction spending.
 
So what's the problem? At this stage in the recovery, businesses remain uncertain about the strength of the recovery and the probable increase in job losses. Duncan Brock, Group Director CIPS explained ...
"the manufacturing sector may be experiencing a 'V" shaped recovery. However, amidst the positivity, the elephant in the room remains the poor employment numbers."

This week job losses and store closures were announced by Pret and Costa. Job gains were revealed by Amazon and Tesco. Further pressure will be placed on the Chancellor, to extend the furlough scheme into the New Year, especially for those sectors slow to recover as we have long explained.

Then of course, there remains, the delicate issue of Brexit ... Duncan Brock continued " Companies are looking at how to stay in business for the rest of the year as challenges from the pandemic retreat a little only to be replaced by Brexit" ... ah yes Brexit, it's now over four years since the referendum ...
Fishing For A Better Deal ...
Just when you thought there was a chance of a deal, Boris Johnson has demanded that British fishermen should double the catch from coastal waters. EU negotiators claim that one in three European fishing boats would be lost at sea, if the UK haul increases. They have rejected the British proposal out of hand.

What's the fuss about fishing? Fishing is worth about £500 million to the UK economy. That's less than the annual turnover of Harrods, according to the Times and less than half a day's borrowing for the government according to simple mathematics.

Fishing has a symbolic resonance in the UK and in Europe, particularly France and Spain. French fishermen are effective lobbyists and Macron faces an election in 2022. For the Prime Minister, the Leave campaign was supported by fishing groups. Fishing became a symbol of taking back control. It remains a significant stumbling block to a deal.

Additional problems remain about the "level playing field" and the issue of state aid. The Prime Minister is keen to ensure the UK government will have the ability to intervene in industrial strategy. On what terms, no one in the Conservative Part can be quite sure. "Picking winners", "supporting losers" "investing in tech" the agenda is a little unclear. History records the UK Government track record on such matters has been hazardous at best. Brussels requires assurances, that Britain will not use subsidies to undercut EU companies. To date, the government has failed to explain, to the EU and to Parliament, just what the plans and platform would be for state intervention and engagement.

Time is running out. Michel Barnier, the EU's lead negotiator, has warned a deal must be agreed by the end of October, if it is to be ratified in Brussels by the end of the year. In no deal is agreed, the UK and the EU will trade on WTO terms.

Recent rounds of negotiations have failed to lead to a breakthrough. Ian Duncan Smith said, "The EU has shown bad faith" adding "The EU has to be prepared to bend. If they don't bend, they don't get a deal" ...

David Davis called on Boris Johnson to repudiate the Withdrawal agreement. No trade deal, no divorce settlement and no divorce bill. "We can repudiate it and see them in court" ... socially distanced of course ...

That's all for this week! Have a great, safe, week-end ...

John

© 2020 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, experience worth sharing.
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