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Friday 11th August 2023
The Saturday Economist Live Returns ... Autumn Series ...
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| | Hi Friend,
Last week we announced the return of The Saturday Economist. This week, we announce the return of the Saturday Economist Live [Autumn Series].
We have invested in heavily in our online studio. We use Zoom. The camera takes years off the facials! Our presentations always considered to be fast moving, content rich and fun. Over 100 slides in the presentation pack. Always with our optimism bias and contrarian bias.
We have number of client presentations already in our Autumn schedule. Lots of tour dates still available. Please get in touch, Reserve a date. We are releasing the dates of our own online updates soon. We are looking for a great sponsor to work with on this.
Our headline should be "Why so gloomy" Growth The latest GDP data suggests the economy expanded by 0.5% in the first quarter and by 0.4% in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, growth was just over 0.4%. Unexciting maybe, but still suggests much of the gloom and doom is overdone.
Interest Rates We maintain our base rate peak this year at 5.5% on the basis of a further 25 basis point hike in September. We model 4.50% as the long run rate for base rates and ten year gilts in life after Planet ZIRP and yes you can have economic growth with 4.5% rates.
Gilt Curve The gilt curve softening reflects our mid term projections. Short rates up to one year remain too high. Mortgage rates are easing back reflecting the more moderate outlook for base rates.
House Prices softening Our model has falls of 2.5% in Q2 and possibly 4.5% in Q3 but that could well be that. The charts show a return to trend rate with the adjustments, rather than a collapse.
Manufacturing Manufacturing output fell almost 2% in the first quarter but expanded by just under 1% in the second quarter. Car registrations increased by 20% in the first seven months of the year, providing a boost to output. The earlier setbacks in manufacturing reflect a return to trend rate rather than a setback to output.
Tomorrow's Edition More coverage in tomorrow's edition. At the Saturday Economist, we always keep you in the (moving) picture. |
| Want to friends and colleagues to know more ...
They too can stay
up to date with our Friday Forward Guidance Features on Rates and our
Monday Morning Markets updates on equities, bond yields, exchange rates,
and commodity prices. Available on The Saturday Economist web site ...
Be in touch tomorrow,
John |
| | References Last Week ...
"You don’t need a Nobel laureate to say why the Bank’s forecasts failed" David Smith The Times Wednesday 2nd August 2023 |
| To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics ... and we do
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© 2023 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, experience worth sharing.
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