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| Saturday 12th October 2024
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| Hi Friend, "Starmer's First One Hundred Days ...
YouGov Latest ...
This Sunday, it will have been 100 days since Keir Starmer became prime minister to form the first Labour government in over 14 years. While still only a fraction of the way through this parliament, it has been an eventful few months and a period that has taken its toll on Labour's popularity.
After just three months in power, six in ten Britons (59%) disapprove of the government's record so far, with only one in six approving (18%). Keir Starmer's popularity has sunk, with 63% of Britons seeing him unfavourably, just over a quarter (27%) still holding a positive view.
Three in ten Britons (30%) say they had expected Labour to do well in government, but have been left disappointed by what they have seen so far. For a further 37% of Britons Labour's poor performance is what they were expecting in the first place. Only one in eight (12%) say their positive expectations have been met.
Labour Had A Plan ...
Labour had a plan for their early days of government, carefully worked on for months by Sue Gray, Starmer's then chief of staff. But despite that, it has been far from easy. Starmer insists he expected that. "It has proved the thesis that government is tougher, but also that government is better, because you get to take decisions."
Preparations for government had been put in the hands of Gray and a small team of party officials, working at a secretive office around the corner from Labour's HQ in Southwark. Visitors were discouraged. "We were told Sue had a plan, and to keep our noses out of it," says one campaign adviser. "But she clearly didn't."
One view is that some of Downing Street's early problems could have been avoided if they had spun a clearer narrative around all the activity. "There was no big set of announcements to capture that spirit of change," says an insider. There was no confirmation of a "Master Grid" and too much "gloom and doom" at onset.
Others might argue like Mike Tyson, "Everybody has a plan until you get punched in the face."
Big decisions, new legislation, foreign trips and attempts to set the political narrative, were established but the blows to the face kept on coming. Not just over donations, of clothing, sunglasses and sofas but stories of internal rows at No 10, the backlash to the cuts to the winter fuel payment and the lack of a clear strategy to reduce child poverty.
Labour's first king's speech initially went off without a hitch, bringing in bills to nationalise the railways, establish Great British Energy, the National Wealth Fund, improve workers' rights and change planning rules to build more houses. Ministers scrapped the Tories' Rwanda scheme, got rid of the Bibby Stockholm Barge and set up a border security command to tackle small-boat crossings.
They invited Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Downing Street, and took first steps to reset relations with the EU. They reached pay deals with junior doctors and train drivers, and funded above-inflation public sector wage rises, helping to reverse years of service disruption adn decline.
Just two weeks into office, Starmer faced his first major test, a Commons rebellion calling for the two-child benefit cap to be scrapped. Inside No 10, it was seen as an early and not entirely unhelpful opportunity to flex muscles, with Labour backbenchers, particularly on the left. Outside, though, it filled many MPs, including some in the cabinet, with dismay. "If we're not tackling child poverty, what are we doing?" one said at the time.
Seven rebels, including veteran left winger John McDonnell, were stripped of the whip for six months. The government announced a child poverty task force but it did little to stem despair across the party, and the wider public, over such a symbolic issue.
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| | The Black Hole
Within days of becoming chancellor, Reeves announced the Treasury would be carrying out an audit of the fiscal inheritance, one of the worst since the second world war. The Chancellor claimed to have found a £22 billion black hole in government spending plans for essential public services in 2024-25.
The Government immediately leapt on the deficit as evidence of irresponsible management of the economy, requiring tax increases and spending cuts in the budget to meet the shortfall.
To help fill the black hole, the biggest mistake was made, cutting the winter fuel payment for pensioners. It was an expensive move politically, to generate a modest contribution financially. More to fill a a pothole than a cosmic hole, the abolition of the winter fuel allowance will contribute just £1.5 billion. It could well be less.
Reeves has been bullish, in private and in public, about the decision, arguing that she had no choice. Otherwise the axe would have fallen on support for disabled people or families with children. "There's no way I'm doing that"" she is said to have told angry MPs. The Morton's fork, it's a tricky bit of sophistry in which a conclusion is drawn in several different ways that contradict each other. MPs were not forked.
Internal frustrations within Starmer's top team, which had been kept at bay by the election, began to bubble over, with. Gray increasingly became the "overpaid" lightning rod. Some political colleagues accused her of "control freakery", creating a "bottleneck" in No 10 that had delayed policy decisions and appointments.
Finally, after warnings from senior aides and cabinet ministers to "get a grip", Starmer came to the conclusion that some of the side winds blowing could develop into a hurricane.
Gray was getting the blame for many of the missteps. It had become unsustainable. At the end of the week, Starmer summoned her to a meeting, at which he told her that she would have to go.
Calmer Waters ...
Morgan McSweeney, the political mastermind behind the party's win, was appointed chief-of-staff in her place, supported by two deputies and a new director of strategic communications. There are now hopes of calmer waters. 'I want to make Downing Street boring again," McSweeney is said to have told officials.
Clearly Starmer needs a cool head of strategy, a master grid, an attack dog (Thatcher's Tebbit) and a great budget at the end of the month. The Treasury has been market testing options, like a mad man in a Woolworths pick and mix shop. Employment tax, higher capital gains tax, a raid on pensions, what else?
Business are wary, holding back on plans for investment and recruitment. The last millionaire to leave the country has been asked to leave a suitable donation at customs.
Bring on the budget, let's have a clear plan. But don't hinder the growth objective in the process ...
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| Have a great week ahead,
John
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References This week's post relies on extracts from our daily "What the Papers Say Review." Certain research and photo content has also been generated using Perplexity AI. This is our favorite AI research tool. Photos are from Adobe Stock, The Saturday Economist Slide Deck and Harry Borden Guardian .
Pippa Crerar, The Guardian
Dylan Gifford, YouGov
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| © 2024 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, experience worth sharing.
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