As the all clear signal nears ...
The government is under pressure to release London from lock down. The number of cases in the capital fell to just 500 over the last two weeks. The all clear signal looms, as the case load falls. Yes, the sirens may well be heard at the beginning of June.
At peak in April, London confirmed 1,000 cases per day. A steep decline has meant the average has fallen to just 50 daily. Just one case was recorded last Thursday.
The excellent symptom tracker research at Guys Hospital under Dr. Tim Spector, suggests 2.2 million people were infected in the UK at the beginning of April. The average over the last few days has now fallen to 250,000. The Office For National Statistics data set suggests just 150,000 are infected, the vast majority north of Birmingham.
Alistair Benn in a Reaction Weekend update, interviewed Professor Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University. Guptra is author of the model which states that "vast swathes" of the population had already been exposed to the virus by the time lock down began. "In almost every context, we have seen the epidemic grow, turn around and die away, almost like clockwork ... to me that suggests that much of the driving force was due to the build up of [natural] immunity."
We will touch on this in greater depth at our Webinar on Friday. The themes will be the duration of the epidemic, the damage to the economy and the shape of the recovery. Hope to see you there, in our "Newsnight Style" show. Register Here.
Social Distancing Measures could be ditched or certainly eased as the lock down eases. Public Health England suggested this week. Yvonne Doyle, medical director at PHE, confirmed the organization is amassing evidence to evaluate if the 2m rule is "absolutely necessary". The two meter rule is a "precautionary approach" and could change to allow closer contact! Really?
The World Health Organisation, together with France, Hong Kong, Singapore and China all seem to think one metre is enough. Pubs, clubs and restaurants will welcome the change, allowing life to return to a degree of normality in the leisure sector.
We are in the strange phase of transition. The guidelines have to be clear, concise and logical. The UK social distancing rule, is an international anomaly. Travel guidelines to the seaside, far from clear. Visiting grandparents in the North East of England appears to be OK for some but not for others. Why when we get there should we only see them, one at at time, in the garden, under police supervision?
Priti Patel added to the confusion this week. Welcome to Britain pamphlets would be offered to visitors. Travel in your own vehicle, stay in one place, quarantine for two weeks and see nobody for 14 days. The police will check up on your movements or lack of them. Cressida Dick, Commissioner of the Met was swift to social distance from the policy. May the force be with you but not on this one Priti.
Exceptions are to be made for farm workers and fruit pickers but not for business and tourism. Strange the priorities as policy unfolds, slowly to unravel as reality dawns ...
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