Subject: Job Shortages ... Where Have All The Workers Gone ...

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                                                                                                       Saturday 31st July 2021
Hi Friend,
Employeee Shortages ...
Where Have All the Workers Gone ...
From hospitality to healthcare, companies are complaining they can't get staff. Recruitment difficulties are increasing, pay rates are rising. More perks and promises are on offer to secure sign ups. The pingdemic isn't helping.

This week, the SMMT reported production shortfalls as a result of the global chip shortage, caused by the pandemic and staff shortages caused by the pingdemic.

By the end of July, almost 700,000 workers had received isolation alerts from the NHS "Stay at Home" App. The motor trade is just one of many, hit by the pings. The list of "reserved" occupations is expected to rise. Isolation conditions will ease, for all in August.

For the wider economy, the problem of labor shortages will persist compounded by the furlough scheme. At the start of the year, 4.7 million were on furlough. The total number had fallen to 1.9 million by the end of June, according to HMRC data.

More than a third of the working population have been supported by government schemes, since the pandemic began. Latest figures show the UK Government supported over 14.5 million jobs during the crisis, at a cost of £325 billion pounds.

So where have all the workers gone? Not far really. In June the number of vacancies in the economy had increased to 860,000. 1.9 million were furloughed. 1.6 million million were out of work.The largest number of vacancies were in accommodation and food (102,000) and retail distribution (107,000).

The largest sectors for furlough retention were accommodation and food (338,000) and retail distribution (270,000). There were almost three workers furloughed for every vacancy in hospitality and retail. On average there were 2.2 furloughed workers for every vacancy inn the economy as a whole.

The furlough scheme is due to end in September. The anomalies within the jobs market may begin to unwind in the final quarter of the year.  The expected rise in unemployment may not be quite as bad as many are forecasting ...
Chart of the Week ... Furloughed v Vacancies
Our Chart of The Week, examines the relationship between vacancies in the economy and the number of people on furlough.
The sectors to which most attention is drawn are accommodation and food and the retail sector.

The retail sector has been subject to structural disruption as more business moved on line. Jobs have been protected on furlough as more vacancies have been created in "new distribution" opportunities.

The accommodation and food sector has been impacted by the repatriation of EU workers, the staycation boom and the geographical switch to holiday hot spots including the South West, Devon, Cornwall and the Lake District.

The correlation between furlough and vacancies is high in most sectors. The anomaly is with the health and social care sector. 153,000 vacancies are reported in June, with just over 70,000 on furlough. There are over two vacancies for every worker still on furlough. It is the inverse of the overall picture. The recruitment crisis will continue in healthcare and social care long after the pangdemic and pingdemic impacts have faded ...
That's all for this week. We are going to take a summer break, returning on August 28th. 

To each and every one of you who have been in touch with me over the past eighteen months, thank you. It has been great to hear from subscribers during these strange and turbulent times ... Have a wonderful August ...

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John
© 2021 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, experience worth sharing.
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