Is it time to talk about overheating ... ?.
UK inflation CPI basis hit 4.2% in October. That's a big rise from the September level of 3.1%. Goods inflation increased to 4.9%. Service sector inflation jumped to 3.2%.
Energy and fuel dominate the cost curve. Electricity, gas and other fuels were up by 28%. Fuel costs were up by 20%. Transport costs were up by 10%.
Second hand car prices were up by 23%. Durable goods, including furniture and household appliances, were up by 10% and 7% respectively.
For the moment, food prices remain below the 2% inflation target threshold. The Bank is forecasting inflation to rise to 4.5% in the final quarter, peaking at around 5% in April 2022, then averaging just over 3% for the year as a whole.
This remains a fair call assuming energy costs and shipping costs ease back. Brent Crude closed below the $80 dollar level this week at $78.35. The cost of shipping a container from China to the U.S. West Coast dropped to $14,000 dollars from a peak of $21,000 in September.
Producer Prices ...
UK producer prices increased in October. Input costs were up by 13%. Oil prices were up by almost 90%. Metal prices were up by 20%. Chemical prices were up by over 12%. Output prices increased by 8%. The pass through rate, from input to output cost, was 61%. We model the pass through rate at 50% using long run data. The impact on goods inflation would be a rise to over 5% in the short term.
Assuming service sector inflation averages 3.5% over the period. CPI inflation would peak at between 4.5% and 5%. The good news, oil prices are easing back below $80. In any case, the inflation impact wanes into the second quarter next year, as the year on year comparisons fade.
Labour Market ...
The latest jobs data confirms the strength of the recovery. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Vacancies increased to 1.2 million. There were 32.5 million in work. Earnings increased by 5.8%. There were 1.1 million on furlough at the end of September. The expectation rises, there will be no significant increase in unemployment before the end of the year.
So is it time to talk about overheating? Not yet. Retail sales were up by 5% compared to October 2019. In value terms sales were up by 10% compared to pre lock-down levels. Vibrant but not vibrating. No real need to tighten rates just yet ...
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