Hi Friend,
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is the three-day annual international conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA. The event is attended by central bankers from around the world. Discussions and speeches are closely followed to divine clues for the likely direction of interest rates in the U.S. and globally. It has been described by The New York Times as "the world's most exclusive economic get-together".
Why Jackson Hole?
The Kansas City Federal Reserve originated an annual conference in 1978. In the early years, the discussions focused on agriculture. Organizers had aspirations for a more high-profile event.
With a proposed focus on economics and monetary policy, the ambition was to lure Paul Volcker, then Chairman of the Federal Reserve to the event. .
Volcker was fond of fly fishing. "We need a place for our next symposium where people can fish for trout," said Tom Davis, head of economic research at the Kansas City Federal Reserve.
In 1982, Jackson Hole was chosen. Volcker took the bait. The venue became part of the annual calendar, the Fed event of the year. Volcker did reportedly raise questions about the distance. "He said, "How in the hell did we ever get to Jackson, Wyoming?"
In the early days, communication was also a challenge. To get a copy of the Wall Street Journal, allegedly, yesterday's edition was always the most up to date available. "If you want a copy of today's edition, you would have to come back tomorrow", the riposte.
The most hotly anticipated event is the speech by the Fed chair. Scheduled for a Friday morning, the speech is often used as a chance for the central bank to send a signal about policy.
This year's conference 2023 was focused on the presentation from Jerome Powell. Markets waited with bated breath and a finger on the buy sell button as the hour of the Fed Chair speech drew close.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Kept His Jackson Hole Speech Vague. It was mostly a reiteration of what we already knew: The Fed would be proceeding cautiously. The economy might not be cooling as much as we previously thought.
Powell didn’t commit to any particular way forward, leaving the door open to additional interest rate increases while declining to say what would be coming or when. His closing line, that the central bank would “keep at it until the job is done,” was included almost verbatim from the speech he delivered in the same setting a year ago.
We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies ...
"We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies. In such circumstances, risk-management considerations are critical. At upcoming meetings, we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving outlook and risks. Based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data.
Restoring price stability is essential to achieving both sides of our dual mandate. We will keep at it until the job is done.
So there you have it. Let's hope the fishing was more conclusive. Our Friday Forward Guidance remains one of the best indicators of forward base rate trends ... | 
