Hi Friend, Bookies Betting On PM Farage ... "Oh Yes It Could ..."
Tesla boss, Elon Musk is reportedly considering giving the Reform Party up to $100 million dollars after meeting up with Farage at Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home in Florida.
The odds on Farage becoming the next prime minister are tumbling as Starmer flounders and increasing numbers of voters talk about a clean break from the Labour - Tory duopoly. Money from Musk would help.
JFK had once joked about receiving a note from Joe, his tycoon father: "Dear Jack, don't buy a single vote more than necessary. I'll be damned if I am going to pay for a landslide."
For Elon Musk, who apparently gave almost $300 million dollars to support Donald Trump's election bid, to give Farage $100 million dollars for an election victory over five years would be "chump change".
$100 million dollars in each year for five years would be a more significant investment. Enough to launch Nigel Farage into a much higher political orbit. A launch into a political hemisphere taking his career to the next level and into Number Ten. $500 million dollars, should be more than enough for an electoral landslide. The Tories and Labour averaged just over £40 million in revenues over the last ten years.
For Elon Musk, it's not rocket science and much cheaper than space travel. In 2023 SpaceX planned to pump some $2 billion into a rocket programme in an effort to finally get Starship into orbit. I didn't get off to a great start. A rapid unscheduled disassembly featured in the initial attempt.
Reform Transformed ...
It goes without saying that any donation even approaching that size would be transformative for Reform. In 2024, Reform was a fledgling party lacking the manpower, apparatus and money of the major partners.
It was the great good fortune of the Conservative Party that Reform's 4.1 million votes were spread too evenly to translate into many parliamentary seats in this year's general election. Reform averaged just one seat in Parliament for every 823,000 people who voted for them. The the Lib Dems, secured a seat for every 49,000 votes and the Tories one seat for every 56,000 votes.
The result of the general election in July did not reflect voting reality. Labour won a landslide majority with only 34 per cent of the vote, winning over 400 seats. The two main parties combined won only 58 per cent of the vote but gained 532 seats. The Lib Dems gained 12% of the vote and 72 seats. Reform won 14% of the vote but only had five MPs elected.
Professor Rob Ford of the University of Manchester highlighted the fact that Labour and the Conservatives were the top two parties in only 48 per cent of seats, down from 73 per cent in 2019. At the next election an insurgent party will be the incumbent or main challenger in most constituencies.
Reform Catching Up ...
Across the nine most recent polls, Reform has an average of 20 per cent of the vote, up from 14 per cent in the general election. Labour is on 28 per cent, down from 34 per cent at the election, while the Tories' share of vote has risen by just two percentage points to 26 per cent.
"Reform will probably get 100 seats at the next election even without extra money," says one election strategist. "And if they get a substantial amount of money they will be able to run a much more targeted campaign based on the sort of data they don't currently have."
The nightmare scenario for mainstream parties is that Reform gets its act together before the next election, builds a nationwide party machine, beefs up and professionalises its full-time staff and has the sort of money to equal or even outdo the other parties' advertising spend.
Veterans of previous UK elections say that data, something Musk knows more than a little about, is the key weapon in 21st-century campaigning. This is where Reform could make up the most ground on the other parties. Reform UK certainly would know what to do with the money with professional help.
Musk likes to use the direct messaging facility on X to communicate with his contacts, something he can do with Farage because they follow each other on the platform. Having Musk retweeting your messages, with his 206 million followers (or even Trump with his 95 million followers) cannot but help Farage.
Reform is changing ...
Farage has appointed businessman Zia Yusuf as chairman of Reform, with a remit to professionalise all aspects of the party, from candidate selection and vetting to building a network of party activists across the country.
Zia Yusuf, said the party now had 105,000 members compared to around 130,000 for the Tories. "The stranglehold of the two old parties is finally broken," he said. History is being made in real time." Farage added"The hegemony is breaking. We are entering a new era of politics."
According to a recent poll by "FindOutNow"" on the 4th of December, Reform has moved ahead of Labour for the first time, just two points behind the Tories. Conservatives polled 26%, Reform 24% and Labour 23%.
At the end of a speech last week, Farage issued a warning to the great and good who were gathered in the audience. "At the next election in 2029 there will be hundreds of newcomers under the Reform UK label. We are about to witness a political revolution the likes of which you've not seen since Labour after the First World War."
The Musk Money ..
On the question of the Musk money, Farage was evasive. "I have neither solicited nor discussed a donation with Elon" but he said Musk backed him. He likes disruptors.
"He's very supportive, he thinks Britain is going down the tubes. He thinks that Labour is leading us in a horrendous direction with the death of entrepreneurship and free speech.
Farage pointed out, his association with Trump would prove a boon. "Whether people like him or not, a relationship with the most powerful man in the world is a plus not a minus," he said."A relationship with the richest man in the world is a real bonus." he could have added.
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