Garden Centres Will Open in May ...
Good News this week! B&Q is set to reopen 155 stores following the shutdown announced by the Prime Minister, just four weeks ago. Manufacturers including Jaguar, Bentley and Aston Martin are returning to work.
House builders, led by Taylor Wimpey will return to building sites. Social distancing measures must be put in place. Only one man on a ladder at any one time, that sort of thing. Businesses are encouraged to return to work as soon as possible.
Further relaxation of the UK clamp down will be made at the end of the month. Garden Centres are expected to open for the May Bank Holiday. A statement on early stage schooling may also be included in the package. In Georgia USA, gyms, hair dressing salons, bowling alleys and tattoo parlors are opening now, as Governor Brian Kemp prioritizes life for Americans in the South East state.
In the UK, the government is concerned there appears to be some relaxation of stringent observance of the lock down measures. Car usage is creeping up, more people in the parks, loitering with intent to sunbathe. The NHS is worried, people are avoiding the health service. Essential treatments including cancer care avoided.
The focus in policy is moving away from isolation, quarantine and lock down to testing, tracking and tracing. Grab a mask if you can get one. We are heading out. Herd immunity, didn't get much of a run, the mediaeval measures of containment are proving to be too expensive. Now the focus is on testing, testing, testing. At least it will assure the people, something is being done.
The Treasury has been taken aback by the reaction to the containment measures. One in four staff have been furloughed under the government scheme. 430,000 firms and 3.2 million workers are now claiming support at a cost of almost £4 billion pounds per month.
80% of businesses in accommodation and food have closed. 70% of companies involved in entertainment and recreation have shuttered for the duration. 40% in construction, 30% in manufacturing, 25% in transportation and storage. Retail sales fell in March by 6%, much worse is to follow in the second quarter. Clothing sales slumped by 30%, alcohol sales jumped by a comparable amount, as the nation turned to drink.
Primark reported zero revenues in April. Boohoo reported record revenues in the year to March. Online sales increased by 12.5% in the latest data, accounting for over 22% of all transactions, a record high.
From the data now available, we estimate GDP (O) output based will fall by 20% in the second quarter. For the year as a whole, growth could fall by 10%. The recovery in 2021 will offset most, if not all of the gain.
The real good news in the blue sky horizon ... hospital admissions in London and the South East are falling. The number of recorded deaths also appears to have peaked. Each death a family tragedy of course but the narrative is supporting an end to lock down. The social cost is high, the economic cost is astronomical ...
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