Hi Folks.
Here's what we are looking at in the coming week.
Before I get to the numbers, a quick word about some shenanigans that took place last week. If you still have last week's forecast you can see I mentioned the Core PCE number set for Friday morning had a .2 forecast, and I opined if it came out at .3 it would be bad and .4 would be catastrophic.
A funny thing happened on the way to the Fed.
Somewhere between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, that forecast was quietly revised up to .3 (on the Forex Factory calendar). Did the FF guys make an earlier mistake and then corrected it? Did the forecast service they use issue a new number? Is there some tin foil hat stuff going on?
I don't know. But I do know when they change the numbers on their calendar, they usually star the folder next to it and list a 1 or 2 line explanation for the change.
Not this time. Radio silence.
The actual number came out at .2, which is now LOWER than the new "forecast" of .3. It makes everybody in Washington look better. Yippee.
Anyway, I just wanted to point that out to let you know it pays to pay attention because what you are seeing isn't always what you are seeing, especially in this day and age.
Let me take my tin foil hat off now and let's get to this week's calendar.
MONDAY: PMI numbers coming out at 9:45 and 10:00 a.m., with a Construction Spending number tagging along and a floating Ward's Vehicle Sales number which may or may not drop today, and never makes any impact anyway, so no worries. The ISM Man. # at 10 has been known to move prices around some so keep your eyes open. But in terms of major price moves, nothing today is likely to make that happen.
TUESDAY: JOLTS job openings and a Factory Orders number at 10, and another floater (Economic Optimism #). JOLTS has been known to push the USD FX charts around a bit, but is routinely ignored by the Indices, which is my main area of focus these days. If you're trading currencies, you might see some decent (15-30 pip) moves for a minute, but aside from that I don't expect the news to be a big player today.
WEDNESDAY: At 8:15 we have the ADP #, which has a minor impact on the markets but reminds us that this is NFP week, and the closer we get to NFP the quieter the market gets. We get a few more PMI numbers at 9:45 and 10:00, and the Services PMI at 10 has been known to push things around a little, but not a lot. And with NFP pending, my guess is it will be not a lot today.
THURSDAY: A handful of 8:30 numbers, none of which are designed to create tradeable moves. NatGas is at 10:30 if you trade gas, but aside from that a quiet news day in anticipation for tomorrow.
FRIDAY: NFP at 8:30, along with the usual tagalong numbers, Final Wholesale Inventories at 10 and Consumer Credit at 3 p.m. Only NFP matters, and it will have it's usual effect at 8:30 on just about everything, then again at 9:30 when the Indices all open. A lot of time the pre market trading will make a logical move in reaction to the number, then reverse itself as 9:30 approaches, and once the markets open they make the same opening move the pre-market made at 8:30. Not always, but often enough it's worth thinking about and remembering as price begins moving at 9:30. By 10 I expect most trading to be in some sort of tight range as the Summer Doldrums are here (and have been here for a few weeks now) so get your trading done and out of the way by mid morning.
Back next week with more.
Jeff
P.S.: About that run up/run down thing I mentioned on Friday in relation to the NFP. Go to last Friday's US30 and take a look at how the pre-market handled the "good" news concerning the Core PCE. SPOILER: They ran it up from 38150 to 38250 a few minutes after the number dropped, then sold it back down to 38190, and after the obligatory "fist-fight in a phone booth" that characterizes 9:30 open trading on the 30, the market ran price back up to 38290 before selling off again. That pattern happens often enough, as I said, you should keep it in mind on the Big Number days.
