Hi Folks.
It's likely going to be another snoozer of a week, news-wise, but the good news is Monday is a national holiday so we only have 4 probably sucky trading days to look forward to, instead of five. So let's take a look.
Monday: Memorial Day. No trading anywhere, no news, enjoy the day off. I plan to.
Tuesday: A couple of Housing numbers at 9:00 eastern, with no real history of causing any price moves of note. At 10 we have the Conference Board Consumer Confidence number. Another worthless number, but...we've gone 2+ weeks with no real news to move the market, and we're coming off a Holiday Monday, which means Tuesday could actually see some real sustained price action for a change, and all you need is a reason. This stupid number might actually serve that purpose for once. But I wouldn't bet the rent money on it. Some Fed clown speaks at 1:30, which again, since we have no idea what he'll say or when exactly he'll say it, it's worthless to us for the most part.
Wednesday: Richmond Manufacturing Index number at 10. It will likely be as bad or worse than expected, and being the only news of note for the day, might generate a little activity. But don't count on it.
Thursday: Finally! A number we can work with. Prelim GDP at 8:30 has a history of moving the charts, particularly the Indices and USD related Forex charts. The good news is it will often carry over to the 9:30 indices opens. So you get the number at 8:30 and an hour to get ready for when the DJIA and S&P and NAS open at 9:30. This could well be the best trading day of the week. There is another housing number at 10 and the Gas and Oil numbers both drop later in the morning, with a Fed Clown jabbering at 12:30. None of that will matter. It's all about the GDP number today. Hitting the target number will probably generate some short term movement. Missing the number even a little will likely provide some good trading opportunities going well into the morning.
Friday: 8:30 is the Core PCE Price Index number, which is a major inflation gauge relied upon by the Fed far and above almost any number, including CPI. And much like the GDP yesterday, you get 2 bites at the apple. First when the number drops at 8:30 and again when the Indices all open an hour later at 9:30. The expectation here is .2%, which is actually the Fed's target number to demonstrate low and controllable inflation. .3% will be a disappointment, and .4% or higher will be catastrophic in the eyes of the big traders, who are still hoping against hope the Fed will start dropping interest rates ASAP. A big miss to the upside on the Core PCE drives a stake through the heart of those hopes, likely for the remainder of the year, and possibly brings the specter of a rate increase back onto the table. That would likely mean the beginning of a true sell-off in the DJIA and S&P. So pay attention to the Core PCE number. There might be some serious coin to be made Friday morning.
Jeff
