Hi Folks.

Here is this week's econ news forecast:

Monday: Zip. Nada. Nothing.

Tuesday: Slightly better than Monday, emphasis on the word "slightly". Existing Home Sales and Richmond Manufacturing Index both at 10:00 a.m., neither of them with a history of doing much to move the charts around. Maybe Wednesday will be better.

Wednesday: Okay. A lot going on. None of it all that significant. But at least it's better than the last two days. Goods Trade Balance (I honestly do not recognize this one...I think the last two days were so bad the FF Calendar guys are grasping at any straw they can to pad out the calendar this week) and Preliminary Wholesale Inventories at 8:30. If you were planning to sleep late today, go ahead. You won't miss anything with this opener. At 9:45 we get the Flash Manufacturing and Service PMI numbers (along with the Canadian Rate Statement, which the Canadians are expected to cut by a quarter percent). The Flash PMI numbers can actually move price around some, and they are hitting after the Indices open at 9:30, so this looks like it could be a decent morning trading the 30 and the NAS. At 10 we get New Home Sales and 10:30 Crude Oil. If you aren't trading Crude on Wednesdays you should give it some thought. Next week I'll go over what I do and how I do it with Oil (that really doesn't sound right but I'm too tired to change it). A pair of Fed Clowns at 4:05 to end to day. Hopefully you are not trading by that time.

Thursday: Advance GDP and Durable Goods both at 8:30, along with some related reports (like GDP Price Index). Last quarter the Advance number caught traders by surprise and hilarity ensued, meaning price took off in both directions over the next hour or so. We are getting close to the election (with a new candidate for the D's as of about an hour ago) so who knows what kind of magic will be ginned up with this number. It really doesn't matter. Just trade what you see, not what you think you should be seeing. Durable goods might have an impact on it's own if it were not for the GDP number, but GDP is the 400 lb. gorilla in the calendar this morning. NatGas at 11:00, but no one really seems to care.

Friday: It's time once again for the Core PCE number, the Fed's favorite canary in the economic coal mine. The other numbers at 8:30 (Personal Income and Personal Spending) are irrelevant. The Street is getting beyond desperate for a rate cut and they really want it at next week's Fed meeting, but Powell just hasn't been giving them the kind of hope they really need and want. A CPCE number at .1 or even .00 would send the market into paroxysms of euphoric buying as they will be certain, CERTAIN I SAY, that Powell will orchestrate the rate cut on the 31st. Whether that happens, with or without a decent CPCE number, remains to be seen. At 10 we get the Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers, but the market should be worn out by then, and the Revised numbers have even less impact than the Preliminary numbers that come out a couple of weeks earlier. So it's all about the CPCE today.

And that's the way it is. See you next week.

Jeff