Hi Folks.

Here is this week's forecast.

MONDAY: We start the week with the Final Manufacturing PMI number at 9:45, which rarely results in much, followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices (one of the lesser inflation numbers) and Construction spending. The ISM numbers are a bit more closely watched, and anything that has the word "prices" attached to it is an inflation number, no matter how unlikely, so at 10 we might see some action for a change. But historically, the moves are smaller and of shorter duration, so whatever we do end up seeing won't be all that impressive.

TUESDAY: This could be a more active Tuesday than what we've been seeing, since we have Powell and Legarde (from the EU Fed) speaking at 9:30 at some EU event. I didn't see anything that indicated audience (meaning Press) questions expected, so this could end up being a big nothingburger, but the Fed has sent some mixed messages lately, with Powell saying 1 rate cut this year and another Fed clown (Bowman?) saying no cuts. This one is going to be watched closely to see if Powell wants to clear up the confusion or just sticks to whatever script he's reading from. We also have JOLTS Job Openings at 10 and that floating RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism report makes it's first appearance for the week (this one rarely drops on the first day it's mentioned, so as a result no one cares what kind of number it posts...but it keeps showing up then dropping off the calendar until the RCM/TIPP clowns get around to releasing the number.) I'm guessing more eyes will be on Powell than the lesser economic numbers.

WEDNESDAY: Get ready for a number avalanche as most agencies will release numbers today in anticipation of tomorrow's day off and calling in sick on Friday to turn this into a 4 day weekend. ADP Non Farm Payroll at 8:15. Final Services PMI at 9:45. ISM Services PMI and Factory Orders at 10. Crude Oil at 10:30 and NatGas at 12:00. Fed Meeting Minutes drop at 2:00 p.m. and typically there is a little whipsawing that takes place then, but it takes the big guys a few minutes to read and digest before making any moves, and as mentioned earlier, everyone will be looking at the future rate cut pronouncements and votes. So this could cause some crazier price action than usual for a Wednesday afternoon, particularly one that lands right before a national holiday, but unless you have the minutes in front of you, it might be tough to discern the whys and how longs behind any significant price moves. So proceed with extreme caution.

THURSDAY: 4th of July. Independence Day (hopefully without the alien invasion attached). Enjoy the day off.

FRIDAY: For the handful of bureaucrats and junior traders in the Big Houses who lacked the juice to take the day off or get away with calling in sick, and thus are working today, we have the Non Farm Payroll, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate numbers at 8:30. ADP numbers dropping at 8:15 on Wednesday expects 156k new jobs created. NFP expects 189k. So check Wednesday's ADP number to get an idea of whether the guys who really know what's going on (ADP) hit or missed. And regardless, you'll get 2 shots at this one, 8:30 and 9:30 when the Index markets open.

Jeff