Hi Folks.
Here is this week's economic forecast.
MONDAY: Today is a textbook example of my favorite sentence in the English language when I was in school: Monday is a holiday (at least here in the US and CANADA). So this means no reports today and the Oil Number will come out late this week.
TUESDAY: So we start this late week with Final Manufacturing PMI at 9:45, which will likely result in no discernable price action, followed by ISM Manufacturing at 10:00, along with ISM Manufacturing Prices and Construction Spending. The 10 a.m. ISM number has been known to shake things up a bit, and if the ISM Prices comes in hot as well (an inflation gauge) we could see some real tradeable price action at 10 a.m. We also have that floating RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism number, but I can't remember the last time this one showed up on the first day it was mentioned. These guys have a bad habit of delaying the release by 2 or 3 days, so no need to worry about it. Plus, we really don't get an exact time to expect the release, so no sense in sitting around trying to guess.
WEDNESDAY: Today is going to be kind of like the last 3-4 Thursdays. A big numbers dump over the first 3-4 hours. 8:30 is the Trade Balance number, affectionately known as the Trade Imbalance number, since we haven't run a surplus in many decades...in fact, according to Wikipedia, the last time we saw a surplus in the balance was 1975. That's a year shy of 50 according to my limited public school math skills. So no chance for surprises equals not worth trading. At 10 we have Jolts Job Openings and Factory Orders. Jolts is the big deal this morning since rumor has it the Fed has shifted its focus away from inflation and upon Unemployment and the job market in general. Either way the number comes out will likely generate some action and will be worth watching. We have another floater today with Ward's Total Vehicle Sales, which I don't think has ever been released when I was watching the charts. No specific time given equals not worth trading. At 2 p.m. the Beige Book from the Fed is released. At one time this release moved prices around some, but lately traders are far more interested in Meeting Minutes and actual number releases. So watch and trade if you want...it will likely move a little bit. But probably not enough to justify the risk behind the trade.
THURSDAY: We start at 7:30 a.m. with Challenger Job Cuts, but with the banks not opening until 8 and the Indices opening at 9:30, it's not really worth the risk. At 8:15 a.m. we get the ADP Non Farm Payroll number, which economists expect to hit around 135k. It's a far more honest representation of the job market than the NFP simply because ADP surveys actual employers to get actual numbers, and sometimes makes prices move a bit. But typically nothing like you'll get tomorrow with the other number. 15 minutes later we get the Weekly Unemployment Number, which has also taken on an outsized role in the interest rate decision making by the Fed. We also get Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q and Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, but those two are invisible compared to ADP and the Unemployment number. At 9:45 we get Final Services PMI, followed by ISM Services PMI at 10. The ISM number could and should make the prices go up or down. Then Nat Gas at 10:30 and Crude Oil at 11:00. Crude is worth looking at if you know how to trade Oil.
FRIDAY: We close out the week with the Non Farm Payroll, along with the Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. The NFP is expected to hit at around 164k, 30k more than the ADP from yesterday. The Fed (and all the traders) will be watching this one because as mentioned above they are paying more attention to the job market than the inflation number, AND this is the last NFP before their September meeting to consider (announce) a cut in the interest rate. And oddly enough, 15 minutes after this number comes out, Williams from the Fed is giving a talk in front of the Trilateralist Commission, oops, no, make that the Council on Foreign Relations (same difference) with audience questions expected. I'm betting at least one audience member is going to ask how the fresh baked NFP number will affect the Fed's decision to cut or hold the rate at the next meeting. Anyone want to take the other side? And even more strange than having a Fed monkey speaking just minutes after the NFP release, we have Waller from the Fed speaking at Notre Dame at 11 P.M. (that's what the calendar says), but since the markets are long closed, get to bed early and read about it in the financial section Saturday morning over croissants and coffee. Or don't worry about it at all. Whatever he says will be long forgotten by Monday morning.
See ya next week.
Jeff | 
