Hi Folks.

Here is this week's forecast.

MONDAY: We start the festivities with Bowman from the Fed speaking at 8:50 in Charleston at some Banker's Conference. But she's speaking on economic outlook and monetary policy and audience questions are expected. Throw in the fact she was the lone holdout in the vote to drop the rate a half point and this means things could get interesting just after 9 this morning. So watch for any rogue price moves that don't seem linked to any specific report or number. Bowman may be the reason. We then have Chicago PMI at 9:45 (no one cares) and Powell speaking at 1:55 p.m. as part of a panel discussion in Nashville, with audience questions expected here also. So if you're trading after lunch, be aware Powell is lurking in the shadows and could cause some unexpected afternoon price runs, depending on how he answers the questions thrown his way.

TUESDAY: We wait until 9:45 for our first US based number, Final Manufacturing PMI. It won't likely do anything because at 10:00 we have the ISM Manufacturing PMI (along with ISM Manufacturing Prices, a lesser inflation indicator) and also with JOLTS Job Openings and Construction Spending. The Fed is watching JOLTS while everyone else is looking at ISM Manufacturing PMI (which is considered a far more accurate number than the earlier PMI number). So we have two shots at seeing some real price action based on economic numbers for a change. Then the rest of the day is a smaller version of last Thursday's Fed GabFestapolooza. Five of them speak (11:00, 11:10 and 3 at 6:15 p.m.) For the same reasons I've stated many times, it's tough to trade Fed speak because we don't know when to expect any breakouts. So just be aware these guys are out there running their mouths if you are trading after 11 a.m. (or trading Asia after 6 p.m.).

WEDNESDAY: Since it's Wednesday, October 2nd, that means ADP Non-Farm payroll at 8:15. The markets really don't pay that close attention to ADP and tend to rely on the NFP which will drop on Friday, but with the recent revelations that the Biden Administration padded the NFP by an extra 800,000 jobs over the last however many months it's been going on, faith in the NFP is at an all time low. Since we know the Fed is still watching job numbers closely, that means the ADP might get a little more attention than it ever saw before. Or not. Just keep an eye on the markets right before 8:15 to get some idea of how the more accurate jobs number will be treated this morning. Then at 10:30 we have Crude Oil. And at 9:00, 10:05, 11:00, and 12:15 we have 4 different Fed clowns speaking again. You'd think they'd be worn out after last Thursday but apparently they feel the need to rack up more frequent flier miles or something. Anyway, the previous statement about not trading Fed speak still applies.

THURSDAY: We start early at 7:30 with the Challenger Job Cuts. If this one was important it would be set at 8:30. At 8:30 we have Unemployment Claims, and as noted in earlier forecasts, the Fed will be watching, and any sort of significant deviation from expectation could cause some real price action as the market tries to anticipate the Fed's reaction at the next meeting to the current number (a fool's game but it does tend to make prices move up and down a lot in a short period of time). Final Services PMI at 9:45 (no one cares) and ISM Services PMI and Factory Orders at 10:00. This one has a history of creating tradeable price action so keep your eyes open. NatGas at 10:30 and what day would be complete without yet another Fed clown speaking (Bostic) at 10:40. So proceed with caution if you're trading at 10:40 or later.

FRIDAY: All eyes will be on the NFP and related reports (Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate) at 8:30, with the knowledge that these numbers have been consistently bogus for a while now. Maybe more eves will be on last month's number to see what kind of revisions are put into place. And in keeping with the theme from this week, our final entry is Williams from the Fed speaking at 9:00 a.m. So be aware of that.

See you next week.

Jeff