Hi Folks.

Here is this week's forecast.

MONDAY: A slow start to a big week, with just the Empire State Manufacturing Index number at 8:30 a.m. This is a "zero" number so anything above a zero is considered good (meaning manufacturing is expanding) and below a zeros is bad (meaning manufacturing is contracting. This one is a lesser index number (Philly Fed is the Big Kahuna) and will provide columnists something to write about this afternoon, but the impact on pricing is typically minimal. The expectation is a -4.1, and the last time we saw anything above zero was November of last year, so only a shocking upside number (+30? +40) will be likely to cause any sort of tradeable price action.

TUESDAY: Retail Sales (Core and Overall) at 8:30, which as I have stated in the past, is not the force of nature we used to see and likely will not cause much more than a momentary ruckus in prices. Cap Utilization and Industrial Production at 9:15 tend to drop unnoticed by traders and today is likely to be more of the same. And the 10:00 a.m. numbers (Business Inventories and NAHB Housing Market Index) are also likely to be overlooked. Surprisingly, Logan from the Fed is also speaking at 10, delivering opening remarks at a Dallas Fed Banking Conference. It's a surprise because the Fed usually shuts up a few days before the Fed Funds Rate meeting (which is set for tomorrow at 2 p.m.) so this event may take place without his input. But be aware because the market is on pins and needles awaiting the Fed Funds Rate decision tomorrow at 2. So don't expect to see much in terms of decent price action today.

WEDNESDAY: 8:30 Housing Starts and Building Permits. Nobody cares. 10:30, Crude Oil. Nobody cares (except Oil traders). 2:00 p.m.: Finally, we find out who shot J.R., er, we find out if the Fed is going to cut the Fed Funds Rate (99% certain they will) and by how much (99% certain it will be a quarter point, taking the rate from 5.5% down to 5.25%). A rather significant number of traders are hoping and praying for a half-point cut, and if/when they don't get it, we could see some real price action for a change. The immediate aftermath of the number dropping will likely be impossible to trade with most brokers, but give it 5 or 10 minutes and things should slow down just enough you can get filled at your preferred prices. There is a press conference at 2:30 and if Powell does not say something (several somethings, actually) about further rate cuts being carved in stone and on tap for the next meeting, you may see a rather noticeable drop in the price of the American based Indices. So if you can find the press conference on C-SPAN or YouTube or wherever, it will likely be worth tuning in so you understand why prices start going up or down seemingly out of nowhere. There is a Bond purchase number set for 4 p.m. but don't bother. All the action will be between 2 and 4 p.m. today.

THURSDAY: 8:30 leads us off with Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the Current Account number, which is just another form of Trade Imbalance, and hasn't been positive in the US's favor since the Eisenhower Administration. So no one looks at that one. Philly Fed is the biggest of the three Manufacturing Index numbers and Forex Factory even listed it as a red folder number up until a month or two ago, but again, the big news was yesterday and I doubt whatever happens with the Philly Fed number will move the ticker any. But Unemployment is a number the Fed is more interested in lately, so scan Powell's remarks at the presser yesterday and see what he says about the impact of the job situation on Fed thinking going forward. If they plan to keep a closer eye on the number and it comes out higher than expected, that likely means another rate cut and maybe sooner than expected. At least that is the way the market will look at it. We have Existing Home Sales and the Conference Board Leading Index numbers coming out at 10 but neither do any damage to price one way or another. And believe it or not, we close out the numbers this week with NatGas at 10:30, which is only of interest to NatGas traders.

FRIDAY: As mentioned above, the last US number for the week came out at 10:30 yesterday. So nothing on the calendar except Harker from the Fed speaking at 2:00 p.m. at Tulane University. No idea what the speech is about but there is no indication audience questions are expected so ignoring him and quitting early is probably the best course of action.

See you next week.

Jeff