Hi Folks.

Here is this week's forecast:

MONDAY: The only US entry for the day is just a Fed Clown speaking at 2:00 p.m. Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed is speaking in San Francisco about the economy and monetary policy. As I always mention about these Fed Talks, they can cause some price action disruption, but we never know exactly when it will happen, or why, and how long the disruption will last. So from our standpoint, it's not really tradeable.

TUESDAY: A busy day for a change, but none of it is all that impressive. Two housing numbers at 9:00 a.m., CB Consumer Confidence and Richmond Manufacturing Index at 10, and a pair of Fed clowns jabbering in the afternoon (usual Fed Clown rules apply, as noted just above). The CB Consumer Confidence number is a red folder event, but I've been watching as price action reacts to this report for a couple of years now and it just doesn't move the needle very much. The CB surveys 3,000 random households to get a feel how the Average Joe feels about the economy. Consumer sentiment is worth noting, as the more depressed people get about the economy, the more likely they are to stop spending and start hoarding their meager funds in anticipation of that proverbial "rainy day". But until they actually start acting like they fear a recession, this number is just so much noise in the background and likely won't create much of a stir.

WEDNESDAY: New Home sales at 10 and Crude Oil at 10:30. Nobody cares about New Home Sales except the people involved in the actual transactions, and if you aren't trading Oil, the 10:30 number will have zero impact.

THURSDAY: A very busy 8:30 news drop, with Final GDP q/q (with Final GDP Price Index q/q along for the ride), Durable Goods (core and overall) and a few others. Preliminary GDP is one of the numbers that moves things around at 8:30 and 9:30, but the final number that we have this morning doesn't bring a lot of suspense with it. Traders are already aware of the prelim number from a few weeks back, so the final number tends to be anti-climactic. The Price Index number, however, could cause a ruckus if it misses the mark either way (higher or lower) as this is a second tier inflation number, and the Fed is still focused on those numbers as they try and convince themselves they need to lower the FFR at least once this year. A miss to the high side will not help those efforts at all. Pending Home Sales at 10 and NatGas at 10:30. Neither will likely do much unless you are a NatGas trader.

FRIDAY: Similar to Tuesday, a busy day number-wise, but the only one that really matters in the Core PCE number at 8:30. This is the number the Fed relies upon the most in terms of gauging inflation. You may recall last month the expected number changed quietly mid-week and caused the actual number to look better on release. This month the expected number is .1% as of 2:00 p.m. eastern time Sunday. So keep an eye on the calendar this week to see if we get a second round of shenanigans from the powers that be. The remaining 8:30 numbers won't matter as Core PCE is the one everyone is watching. At 10 we have the Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers. Like the CB number earlier this week, the idea of consumer sentiment is an important one, but the actual measurement of it doesn't impress traders very often. But it's the only numbers to drop after 9:30 market open (we have a Fed Policy report at 11 [not a number] and a Fed Clown speaking at 12) so the UofM numbers might have a bit more influence this week as traders will have nothing else to hang their collective hats on for the rest of the week heading into next week's holiday trading sessions.

Jeff