Hi Folks.
Here is my econ news forecast for the week of June 10-14, 2024
This week is either feast or famine.
MONDAY: Famine. No news. Period.
TUESDAY: Ditto.
WEDNESDAY: Today we feast. CPI is at 8:30 and the Fed Funds rate is at 2:00 p.m. Normally you can ignore 8:30 news of Fed Funds Day, but not when the news is CPI. Expect fireworks at 8:30, 9:30 and then at 2:00 p.m., although the reaction to the FFR announcement is sometimes less impressive than what happens at and after the press conference 30 minutes later. There has been a "Groundhog Day" type reaction to the release of the number, which no one who reads above a second grade level believes is getting taken down a quarter point this meeting. The number stays the same (5.50%) and the Indices rise in price, not necessarily dramatically, but noticeably and continuously over the 30 minute gap between number and presser. Then a few minutes into the press conference Powell will say something about the almost guaranteed unlikelihood of a rate cut this year and the Index prices will drop 500 points over the next hour to 90 minutes. The actual numbers might be different, but the price action very well might be as described. Northbound after 2:00 p.m., and Southbound by around 2:45-3:00 p.m.
THURSDAY: PPI at 8:30 and Yellen (SecTreas) and Williams (Fed) both speaking at 12 noon (some rubber chicken shindig at the Economic Club of New York). The PPI number is a day after the CPI/FFR numbers, and if it comes out anywhere near projections (.1% overall, .3% Core) it likely won't generate enough activity to make it worth trading. The 9:30 Indices opens might reflect the impact of the number, but with CPI already landing 24 hours earlier and likely generating about as much activity as we can hope to see on a summer day, this one probably won't do anywhere near as much for us.
FRIDAY: Import prices at 8:30 (which is another way of saying No News at 8:30) and the preliminary Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectation numbers at 10. This is one of those numbers (two, actually) the calendars like to hype up, mostly because they land on Fridays when things are otherwise slow, and anything with the word "Inflation" in the name could be important. But all this is, is a survey of 500 people regarding how they feel about the economy and inflation. You can look at the disparity in the previous months numbers and see even though not much happened in a 3-4 month period, the number themselves fluctuated wildly. So as a valid measurement tool, these numbers leave a lot to be desired. But it's the only thing going on post-market open Friday, and only Wednesday's numbers were designed to move the market, so in spite of their lack of relevancy, you could see at least some post 10 a.m. activity because of the UofM survey. But don't count on much, especially now we are in the Summer Doldrums. Maybe think about taking today off. I plan to.
Jeff | 
