Hi Folks.
Here's what's happening this week in economic news.
MONDAY: Once again, nothing on Monday. This is becoming the norm for some reason.
TUESDAY: Two housing numbers at 9 a.m. (S&P Composite y/y and the Housing Price Index m/m), neither of which are worth worrying about; Then at 10 we have the Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Jolts Job Openings numbers. Both are listed as red folder reports, neither have a history of doing a lot, but this is the first significant news we've seen this week, so we should get at least a small bump out of it. If there was nothing else going on this week, this would probably be the highlight. But we have a couple of other items coming up that dwarf these two numbers, so don't expect much, because...
WEDNESDAY: A bunch of garbage numbers in the morning...8:15 ADP Non-Farm Payroll...8:30 Employment Cost Index...9:45 Chicago PMI...10:00 Pending Home Sales...10:30 Crude Oil....a bunch of numbers which on any normal day might mean something, and we might see a little action based on the ADP number, depending on how close to the estimate it lands, but none of that will matter because at 2:00 p.m. we have the Fed announcing the Fed Funds rate and this will likely freeze traders in their tracks from Monday until the 2:00 p.m. release today. The Street has been screaming for a rate cut and some of the inflation numbers have been dropping on the low side the last 6 weeks, but is it enough to get Powell and the rest of the gang at the Fed to cut rates? Tune in at 2:00 p.m. and find out. My gut says no, Powell made enough noise the last couple of weeks about not being impressed with the direction inflation has headed since the last Fed meeting, but that's never stopped the Street from dreaming. So tune in at 2 and plan on seeing some real crazy price action this time regardless of the outcome. A rate cut will likely send the Indices skyrocketing, while the Fed standing pat this time will likely trigger a temper tantrum on the part of institutional traders and we could see a significant drop in Indices prices as a result. And don't let any indecisive moves from 2 to 2:30 fool you. The press conference at 2:30 is what the traders as really here for to try and divine the next set of moves the Fed will make in September.
THURSDAY: A lot of activity once again, but not a lot of numbers designed to move the market around. 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts is not worth getting out of bed early for. Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs q/q at 8:30 along with the weekly Unemployment number. Again, not much to work with here typically. Final Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10, along with ISM Manufacturing Prices, which is yet another inflation number the Fed routinely ignores. Construction Spending is in there at 10 as well, but it's the ISM numbers that will push prices around if that ends up being the result of the numbers posted. That floating Wards' Vehicle Sales number comes out when it comes out, but with no fixed time there isn't much we can do to plan for it. And finally Natural Gas at 10:30. A lot of stuff, but tomorrow's numbers generally cause traders to ignore today's numbers.
FRIDAY: NFP Friday. At 8:30 we get the NFP along with Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate. This is one of those numbers we can usually trade twice (once at 8:30 on release and once at 9:30 when the Indices open). Wednesday's ADP number expects 166k jobs and the Friday NFP expects 177k jobs. A big miss either way could result in some decent price action, even in August. At 10 we have Factory Orders but that one never moves the needle even a little bit. So it's all about the NFP today.
Jeff
