Hi Folks.
The late edition of the econ forecast (sorry about that, couldn't be helped) for Sept. 23-27, 2024.
MONDAY: 8 a.m. we had a fed clown speaking. At 9:45 we have Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI. This is worth watching as we get an early look at how businesses are viewing the economy. Two more fed clowns at 10:15 and 1 p.m. Can't trade either but they might say something to roil the markets, so be aware if you are still trading.
TUESDAY: Two housing numbers and Bowman from the Fed at 9:00 a.m. The housing stuff has no impact, but Bowman could say something stupid and make the market go zoom. At 10 we have the CB Consumer Confidence number and the Richmond Manufacturing Index number. Another case where it looks impressive on the outside but the reality is neither number has much of a history of influencing price action.
WEDNESDAY: New Home sales at 10 (no one cares) and Crude Oil at 10:30. Kuglar from the Fed chatters at 4 p.m. but you should be off doing something else besides chart watching by then.
THURSDAY: Here is what you need to know about today: 5 reports at 8:30: Final GDP, Final GDP Price Index, Weekly Unemployment Claims, and Durable Goods (Core and Overall). We already got a glimpse of GDP when the early number hit a few weeks back so this one is priced in already. The Fed's concern about the Unemployment Number likely remains strong, but we are six weeks away from the next Fed Meeting so this one will likely not do much unless we crack 300k claims, and Durable Goods is the ugly stepsister of economic numbers as far as the market is concerned, which is why it comes out late instead of with CPI and PPI, so likely not much to worry about here. Pending Home Sales at 10, (no one cares) and NatGas at 10:30 (again, no one cares).
And then we have ELEVEN separate Fed speeches on tap today, from 9:15 a.m. through 6 p.m., with some of the toadies doing double duty. Even Yellen gets into the act, along with Legarde from the EU (and she makes it 12 speeches overall). Open your calendar and keep an eye on the clock so you know what to expect if you see a great setup and want to take the trade. A Fed Clown could be lurking to destroy everything you fought for if you're not careful.
FRIDAY: At 8:30 we have Goods Trade Imbalance (no one cares), Personal Income and Personal Spending (again, no one cares) and Preliminary Wholesale Inventories (no one really cares about this one). So don't expect much of a market reaction to the 8:30 news. At 10 we have the Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers, which are not known to do much, although once in a great while if the number comes out really off from expectations, you could see some action, so pay attention to the projected and actual numbers. Finally, at 1:15 p.m., Bowman from the Fed remembers something he forgot to say on Thursday so he tees it up one more time to close out the week. A non tradeable event.
Have a great week and I'll hopefully be back on time next week.
Jeff
