Hi Folks.
Announcements First.
First, as of this moment the area where I live is tap dead center of the crosshairs on a new hurricane called Milton, due to hit shore at some point Wednesday evening. I bring this up for 2 reasons: one, I'm already getting emails from people asking for some assurance I will be okay. So here it is: I will be okay. Historically, targets placed 3-4 days in advance end up being 150 miles away from the actual point of landfall. I'm not in any way certain this will work out in my favor this time, but I have history on my side. The second reason is direct hit or not, I will likely be without power or internet for a few days, so if you don't hear from me immediately after Milton heads out into the Atlantic, don't worry. I'm probably sitting in the shade somewhere reading a book and hoping power comes back on soon. And if that is the case I will do everything in my power to find a hot spot so I can send out next week's forecast.
Second Announcement: Actually a heads up. I'll be sending out another email later today with a pretty big announcement, if I may say so myself. You're going to want to hear about this, so keep an eye on your Inbox.
Now, onto the news, such as it is this week.
MONDAY: Lots of entries on the calendar for today, and none of them are worth anything. 3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit number. I've never traded it before and don't plan to start today. And 3 separate Fed clowns speaking at 1:00, 1:50 and 6:30. Don't try and trade these talks. There is only one good possible outcome and dozens of bad ones. Stick with the reports.
TUESDAY: We start before sunrise with Kugler from the Fed giving a speech at 3:00 a.m., and no, that is not a misprint. Some event in Germany. Pass. Then at 6:00 a.m. we get the NFIB Small Business Index. Another hard pass, although there is about a 1 in a hundred chance I'll be awake at 6, versus 0 chance at 3 a.m. Finally, after sunrise, the Trade Imbalance at 8:30, which typically does absolutely nothing to move the needle, and that floating RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism report. Since it's floating and does not have a fixed time for release, that makes it untradeable. I think I say this every month about this report. And more Fed chatter at 12:45, 4:00 and 7:30 p.m.
WEDNESDAY: Nothing terribly important today. Final Wholesale Inventories at 10:00, Crude Oil at 10:30 and the 10 year Bond Auction at 1:01 p.m. Fed meeting minutes at 2 but that is a tough one to trade right at 2. But it could provide the fuel for some late afternoon price runs, so keep your eyes open after 2 if you trade those hours. Crude is the only number worth looking at, but only if you trade oil. At 8:00, 9:15 and 10:30 a.m., and 12:30, 5:00 and 6:00 p.m. there is more Fed chatter.
THURSDAY: Finally, a number worth trading. CPI in all its variations at 8:30 a.m., along with Unemployment claims. So the Fed has 2 numbers to watch in terms of how it will proceed with rate cuts in November (and this is the only CPI number they will have to work with as the next one comes out after the November Fed Meeting. NatGas at 10:30 and the 30 year Bond Auction at 1:01 p.m. And lots of Fed chatter at 9:15, 10:30, 11:00 a.m.
FRIDAY: If it's post CPI Friday that must mean PPI at 8:30. I say this a lot but when CPI hits first, PPI rarely makes an impact, so this one is somewhat anticlimactic. Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers at 10:00, which rarely do much and even more rarely on a day when we get CPI or PPI earlier, and more Fed chatter at 9:45 and 10:45 a.m. and 1:10 p.m.
See you next week, weather permitting.
Jeff
