Hi Folks.
Big doings this week which might translate into some real trade opportunities. So let's get to it.
MONDAY: When I said it was a big week this week, I wasn't talking about today. Factory Orders at 10 a.m. and a floating Loan Officer Survey which I have never seen drop when I was trading in the morning. So we get to start with a little breather, because Factory Orders doesn't do anything for price action either.
TUESDAY: It's Election Day in the US of A, and all eyes will be on the returns starting at 8 p.m. eastern tonight. In the meantime, we have Trade Imbalance at 8:30 (pass) and ISM Services PMI at 10 a.m., and this one has been known to push prices around a little when it's released as a standalone number (and not part of the 1-2 punch which also includes the ISM Manufacturing PMI). So we might see something happening about 1 second after 10:00 a.m. eastern. A quick side note to the election: 8 years ago a guy named Jim Rickards, who is former CIA and now acts as a financial analyst via a newsletter subscription, was one of the few voices who predicted Donald Trump would win the election, and he suggested that once it became clear Trump had a chance at victory, Gold would skyrocket in price. On a whim I bought Gold at 3 in the afternoon on election day and watched it go up by about $75 over the next 8 hours. So if this turns out to be Groundhog Day with Trump regaining the Presidency, will Gold go up again? Doubtful, but I may take a shot with a small Buy if it looks like he has any kind of chance (and I think he already has that, at a minimum). Hold until it turns around and starts to go the other way.
WEDNESDAY: Final Services PMI at 9:45, Crude Oil at 10:30 and a 30 year bond auction at 1:01 p.m. Aside from trading the Oil number for those of you who trade oil, this is a non-tradeable lineup.
THURSDAY: A bunch of stuff to litter the calendar this morning, with Unemployment Claims at 8:30, along with Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs q/q. The Unemployment number has loomed large recently because of the Fed's pivot from Inflation to Unemployment as the bellwether number it pays attention to before deciding rate cuts (or increases). Final Wholesale Inventories at 10:00, NatGas at 10:30 and a floating Mortgage Delinquencies number are all equally unlikely to impact price action. But at 2:00 p.m. we have the results of the Fed's Open Market Committee meeting on Interest Rates, which the Market is watching like Malcolm McDowell in A Clockwork Orange...eyelids held open mechanically, eye drops squirted into their eyes on occasion, so they don't accidentally blink and miss a single nanosecond of the Fed's release. A few weeks ago the smart money said another quarter point cut this meeting, then the employment numbers showed the economy was still hot, which bodes more in favor of no rate cut (and the Core PCE, a Fed Favorite, showed Inflation is still running a little warm, also a "no rate cut" supporter), but Friday the NFP checked in with a whopping 12,000 new jobs created, which pushes the quarter point cut back towards center stage. What it all boils down to is no one knows for sure this time what's going to happen and that's where volatility comes from. So this one could be worth tuning in for and placing a trade or two once you have a clearer picture in front of you.
FRIDAY: We close the week with another breather, the Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers. Given we had a major election this week, along with the scheduled Fed rate announcement, I can't imagine anyone will be left to trade this hot garbage on Friday. So skip it and take a long weekend, and I'll see everyone back on next Monday.
Jeff
